The leaders of the AL East and AL Central clash in a three game set over the weekend with the all-important series finale set for Sunday afternoon as the Kansas City Royals ( 21-13, $768 ) host the New York Yankees ( 21-14, $690 ).
ODDS ANALYSIS
Two straight losses to the Rays heading into Thursday has taken off a bit of the Yankee’s luster after a hot start. Still, New York is far ahead of where many thought they would be at this point, as evidenced by the overall moneylines on the year.
Kansas City got the better of New York last year, winning four of their seven head-to-head games and will look to do even better this year.
In total offensive numbers, the Royals also have the slight upper hand, though both Kansas City and New York have very good offenses, although very different.
For the Yankees, they score on the long ball. The team is third in baseball and second in the American League in home runs with 43 and have a slugging percentage of .422.
Contact is the name of the game for Kansas City. With just 27 team home runs, the Royals thrive by putting the ball in play and using their team speed to help make something happen on the base paths.
PITCHING MATCHUP
As of Thursday, neither team has announced a starter for this series finale, though it would be Yordano Ventura’s and Nathan Eovaldi’s normal spot in the rotation.
The 23-year old Ventura has been part of a lot of controversy in the early season and needs to calm down and return to the form that allowed him to go 14-10 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.295 WHIP in his rookie season.
So far in his sophomore campaign, he is just 2-3 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.388 WHIP through 40 1/3 innings of work.
The rotation in general has not been the Royals forte this year, but they need Ventura to give them at least five or six solid innings before turning things over to a bullpen that is likely even better than last year.
Eovaldi hasn’t exactly been unhittable either.
The radar gun loves Eovaldi’s blazing fastball, but it lacks movement which is even more important.
The 25-year old flamethrower is 3-1 on the year with a 4.14 ERA, but a 1.476 WHIP as his straight as an arrow fastball has resulted in 10.9 hits per nine innings. The inflated number of hits is not that much of a fluke either as his career hits per nine innings mark is 9.6.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After the Yankees lost their second in as many games on Wednesday, first baseman Mark Teixeira noted:
“We just have to do a better job with men on base. It just wasn’t our night with men on base tonight. We just have to do a better job of that.”
In general, that is a common problem with teams so reliant on the long ball like the Yankees, when that home run dries up, they struggle to score.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Yankees have patiently waited all season for Carlos Beltran to heat up, all the while winning with him being nothing more than an automatic out.
Now, Beltran’s bat is starting to come to life as he has hit in six straight games while batting .311 in his last 12. With Beltran coming along, that just lengthens up the lineup, helping to further hide the ineffectiveness of their middle infield.
Even with Beltran, the Yankees offense comes down to home runs and the production of Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner at the top. The duo are one of the best 1-2 punches atop a lineup in baseball and have a .417 and .389 OBP respectively.
In the other dugout, Royals manager Ned Yost has the good fortune of having a very deep lineup with contributors at nearly every position. He also has an early season MVP candidate in Eric Hosmer who is breaking out in a big way. Through 34 games, the Royals first baseman is hitting .323 with a .954 OPS.
Of course, Alex Gordon ( .901 OPS ), Mike Moustakas ( .848 OPS ), Lorenzo Cain ( .826 OPS ) and Kendrys Morales ( .820 OPS ) are all also performing well above expectations.
PROP TALK
Combined, the New York Yankees are just 2 for 18 against Ventura in their careers as Teixeira and Ellsbury are the only two to deliver a hit. Ellsbury, of course, is always a good bet to get on base, getting a hit in 14 of his last 15 games.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
This will be a great matchup. You have two young starters with eye-catching stuff, a pair of dominant bullpens and a couple of offenses, while different, ranked very similarly in terms of runs scored.
With these teams so close, the little things really matter and that is good for Kansas City.
The Royals have the better defense with plus defenders at basically every position around the field and while Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller have combined for 36 2/3 scoreless innings, the Kansas City bullpen has more depth with Greg Holland off the disabled list.
They have Wade Davis, Ryan Madson, Jason Frasor, Luke Hochevar and Kelvin Herrera each with impeccable stuff.
Kansas City 6, New York 3
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