The Yankees play the 85-63 division leading Jays in a three game set to kick off the week. They basically need a sweep to get back into the race.
That’s not very likely, but on Tuesday the 81-66 Yankees do at least have a chance to come away with a win.
ODDS ANALYSIS
While separated by three and a half games in the standings, the separation between these two teams financially for bettors is far bigger.
The Jays have been a really solid bet, particularly since the trade deadline, with a cumulative moneyline of $983. The Yankees, on the other hand, sit at $184.
While most teams thrive at home and struggle on the road, the Yankees aren’t like that. Instead, they’re rather balanced.
On the road here in 2015, they’re 40-34. The Blue Jays, though, do greatly prefer playing north of the border and are 48-26 in such games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Marco Estrada takes the hill for the Jays in this middle game of three. The 32-year old right-hander is having a career year with a 3.14 ERA spread over a career high 160 1/3 innings of work.
The veteran is 13-8 with a 1.073 WHIP which is a bit artificial considering how lucky he’s been with RISP. Overall, he’s got the lowest hits per nine innings ration in the league at 6.8 and his FIP is 4.42.
Still, Estrada is coming off an excellent start, holding the Braves scoreless through eight.
Against the Yankees this year, he’s been serviceable, though not as impressive, going 1-2 with a 4.09 ERA and 1.227 WHIP in four starts spanning 22 innings.
On the other side, the Jays are expected to face rookie Luis Severino, though the Yankees have yet to announce their rotation for the series.
In eight Major League starts, the youngster is 4-3 with a 3.12 ERA though he’s prone to base runners with a 1.338 WHIP that’s bumped up his FIP to 4.18. Walks have been the main issue with 3.7 per nine innings.
Still, he’s won four of his last five games and has allowed a run or fewer in five of his eight starts and only more than three once.
QUOTE TO NOTE
With Mark Teixeira out, A-Rod cooling off and the top of the order struggling, the Yankees have leaned on Carlos Beltran to carry the offense and he’s done that after a slow start. Catcher Brian McCann spoke about his teammate, saying:
“You take a moment to check out the back of his baseball card. He’s done things—and is doing things—that you don’t count guys like that out…He continues to put up great at-bats.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
With Beltran and McCann, the team still has some thump in the middle. Of course, the promotion of Greg Bird to play first in Tex’s absence has been big as well.
The young slugger has picked up right where Teixeira left off. If you add in A-Rod, Brett Gardner, Jacoby Ellsbury and others, the talent is still there. This team is still second in all of baseball in runs scored.
While second is good. The Jays are first by a considerable margin. The Yankees are also slipping, they’re in the middle of the road in September with 79 runs in 17 games, 19 fewer than Toronto.
The Blue Jays continue to hit even with Troy Tulowitzki sidelined. They’ve scored at least five runs in each of their last four games. They also still have a top four of Ben Revere, Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. The latter three each have at least 34 homers and 103 RBIs while Revere has a .360 OBP since joining the team.
To make things worse, after those four, the lineup is still stacked.
PROP TALK
Severino is happy Tulo is out. He’s 2-for-5 against him in his short career. Still, Justin Smoak is the player with the most success against Severino, going 2-for-4 with a home run.
On the other side, look for a big game from Beltran. He’s hitting just .273 against Estrada in 22 at bats, but has three home runs and a .385 OBP.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Even with an inflated FIP, Estrada has pitched well for the Jays and should keep them in the game while the offense is the best in baseball.
Severino has pitched very well, but did have a hiccup a couple games ago and the Jays have now already seen him and he’ll have to adjust.
I think this game will be close, but I’m giving the edge to Toronto and its bats at home.
Toronto 6, New York 4
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the New York Yankees versus the Toronto Blue Jays will commence Tuesday, September 22, 2015, at 7:07 p.m. ET at Rogers Centre. The matchup can be seen live on ESPN.
