The Team of Destiny, the Chicago Cubs, have shrunk the number of wins needed to lock up their first World Series in more than a century down to seven. They’ve now got all the momentum in this series, but momentum is only as good as the next day’s starter. Fortunately for the Cubs, the next day’s starter is always a good one.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
After the Dodgers tied up the game in the eighth with an Adrian Gonzalez bases-loaded single off of Aroldis Chapman.
Chicago didn’t waste much time getting revenge, however. The Cubs added five runs in the eighth to cruise to an 8-3 victory.
Between the regular season and postseason, these two teams are now tied at four games apiece head-to-head.
Given the starting matchup analyzed below, this game could swing the series back in Los Angeles’ favor, but the Dodgers will have to overcome a 38-43 regular season mark on the road. Of course, they did win two on the road against Washington in the NLDS.
The Cubs won both of their NLDS games at Wrigley field and won more than 70-percent of their home games in regular season, too.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
With Maeda starting Game 1, the Dodgers now have Clayton Kershaw ready to start Game 2 despite a brief appearance in the NLDS Game 5 on Thursday.
Kershaw pitched in all three of the Dodgers’ NLDS wins, though he did allow eight runs in 12.1 innings over those three games, including two starts.
In his first start of the series, the Nationals were able to get to him early, scoring two in the third and one in the fourth, but he kept his team in the game and they got him the win.
Game 4 was a bit different. He went six innings, allowing two runs, but fell apart in the seventh, allowing three in that inning. He came back to get a couple of batters in Game 5.
The three time Cy Young Award winner and four time ERA champion is one of the best regular season pitchers of this generation, but he’s been less dominant in the postseason. That’s continued into this postseason.
In an injury shortened season, Kershaw went 12-4 with a 1.69 ERA, but didn’t face this Chicago Cubs’ team. In his career, he’s 5-3 with a 2.18 ERA in eight starts against the Cubs.
Chicago counters’ Kershaw with a Cy Young candidate of their own in right-hander Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks left his NLDS start with a line drive to the forearm, but all reports are that he’s healthy and ready to go on Sunday. Prior to leaving that game, he did allow two runs in 3.2 innings. Can he bounce back from that?
The 26-year old right-hander had a season to remember, going 16-8 with a major league leading 2.13 ERA and 188 ERA+. In total, he pitched in 31 games, tossing 190 innings and allowing a 0.979 WHIP. Throughout his strong season, Hendricks has drawn comparisons to Greg Maddux.
He’s deserved those comparisons, too. He’s done an excellent job commanding the ball and moving it around in the zone. He’s lowered his walk rate and allowed just 6.7 hits per nine innings.
Hendricks also pitched eight strong against the Dodgers back in June, allowing two runs on three hits.
LIVE BETTING
The Cubs scored eight runs, collecting nine hits and six walks in the process. Chicago slammed eight extra base hits in the game and did most of their damage against the Dodgers’ bullpen; namely Joe Blanton.
Blanton lasted just two-thirds of an inning, giving up five runs on four hits and two walks before Dave Roberts took him out of the game.
Blanton was an important part of a Dodgers’ bullpen that was tops in baseball in team ERA, but with Blanton choking, Pedro Baez having issues in the NLDS and Kenley Jansen tossing a career high 51 pitches against Washington on Thursday, there are series questions about this bullpen as this NLCS progresses.
The Cubs’ bullpen faltered, too. Gonzo collected that two-run hit against Chapman, though he came in with bases loaded and none out, giving up just two of those runs so he cannot be blamed for the runs though he did get a blown save.
Nevertheless, he pitched well, striking out two, and was able to get some relief with Hector Rondon closing out the game following a big eighth for the Cubs’ bats.
QUICK PICK
We’ve seen the Cubs offense come up with a few big innings during this postseason. Kershaw is a tough opponent, but he’s not been the same pitcher in the postseason.
The Cubs will score a couple against Kershaw before the Dodgers are forced to go to a bullpen that’s now got its fair share of questions.
Hendricks, meanwhile, has had a couple bad outings lately, but he’s got the best ERA in baseball and has been masterful most of the year. He’s not one that relies on velocity or stuff, but instead command and movement. He knows how to pitch and that tends to play in the postseason.
With two strong starters, look for a low scoring game, with the Cubs coming out with yet another win at home.
MLB Odds: Cubs 4, Dodgers 2
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