Three games in and it’s the almighty Cubs that find themselves down in the NLCS after Clayton Kershaw pulled the series even at a game apiece over the weekend and Cubs’ offense continued to flounder against the big curve of Rich Hill and an assortment of arms out of the Dodger bullpen.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs’ flat offense should be very concerning for Chicago fans. The team was dominating early in the season and—save for Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant—had a much less impressive second half at the plate.
Nevertheless, there’s no denying that this team is still stacked with talent as they can pull players off their bench with better numbers than most teams put out at their respective positions on a daily basis.
While that’s all fine and dandy in theory, those players have to produce and that’s just not happening for the Cubs right now. They’ve gotten a few big innings to help them get to this point in the postseason. They’ve also gotten some big hits for pitchers helping themselves, but the consistent threat from the lineup hasn’t been there and that’s made the Cubs vulnerable.
They were led by their pitching all year, but that pitching is being asked to essentially shutout the opposition and that’s tall order.
In general, Ben Zobrist, Addison Russell and Rizzo are all not hitting. Meanwhile, Javier Baez’s bat has gone quiet the last few games.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
This pitching matchup will feature a pair of starters in two very different places in their careers in the Cubs’ 37-year old veteran right-hander, John Lackey, and the Dodgers’ 20-year old rookie southpaw: Julio Urias.
Interestingly, Urias is in a very similar position that Lackey found himself in back in 2002. In that year, the then-young rookie was a big part of a World Series championship in the city of Los Angeles, pitching particularly well in the Championship Series for the Angels.
That year, Lackey didn’t get a start in the ALDS, but pitched in one game, going three scoreless in relief. This year, Urias pitched in relief in the NLCS, except he only went two scoreless.
Lackey followed that relief appearance up with a scoreless start in the ALCS, Urias hopes to do the same.
The young lefty did face the Cubs twice in the regular season with vastly different results. The first time he allowed six runs in five innings. The second time around, he learned, and he was able to go six strong innings, allowing only a single run with striking out eight.
Part of that change had to do with a Cubs offense that was dominating in the first half and merely average in the second half, but more so Urias was able to execute his pitches. He’s got the stuff to shut down a stacked, but struggling Cubs lineup.
On the other side, Lackey is a much different pitcher than the bright-eyed 23-year old in 2002. He’s since pitched in nine different postseasons and earned one more World Series ring.
He’s been a very successful postseason pitcher in his career, posting a 3.22 ERA in 131.1 innings, but he didn’t fare that well in his lone start in the NLDS. He went just four innings against the Giants, giving up three runs before Joe Maddon went to his bullpen.
Wednesday will be Lackey’s first start against the Dodgers in 2016, but he’s been very good against them in his career. In 12 games, Lackey is 6-3 with a 1.75 ERA in 77 innings against Los Angeles.
LIVE BETTING
We’ve noted the Cubs’ offensive struggles, but it’s not like the Dodgers’ have been an offensive powerhouse either. Adrian Gonzalez was swinging a hot bat heading into Game 3 though and after a few down games, Corey Seager stepped up going 3-for-4 while Gonzalez took the 0-for in the contest.
There’s a bit more offense to be found in Los Angeles right now compared to Chicago, this game—just like the rest of the games in this series so far—boils down to the pitching: both starting and out of the pen.
The starting pitching matchup has been evaluated. In the bullpens, Joe Blanton’s scoreless frame in the seventh is noteworthy given his meltdown in Game 1. That’s a good sign for the bullpen that had the best ERA in all of baseball in the regular season. Blanton was an instrumental part of that equation.
Of course, the two kingpins in the back end of Kenley Jansen and Aroldis Chapman are big, but both are dominant pitchers, both have been gotten to once in this postseason and both have responded well. The real difference maker is in the middle innings, bridging to those two. That’s where the Dodgers have the advantage statistically. The question is: does Urias allow them to get there or does he cave under the pressure given his youth? We know Lackey’s fortitude.
QUICK PICK
It’s hard to predict that the assumed World Series champion at the beginning of the season and the team that’s lived up to that moniker from February until now would go down in a series three games to one, but this matchup doesn’t look all that pretty for the Cubs.
Chicago is still on the road and they have to go to their weakest pitcher of their four playoff starters. Nevertheless, their fourth is more experienced than the Dodgers’ fourth and while Urias will try to mirror Lackey’s scoreless Championship Series performance from his rookie’s season in 2002, he’s unlikely to live up to it.
Urias hasn’t been asked to start since the regular season. He’s not likely to go too deep in this game and while Los Angeles has the better bullpen by the numbers, the guys in the early-to-mid-portions of the game are still beatable.
Given what we’ve seen this series, this isn’t a matchup you feel good about. The Cubs need the offense to come alive, but we’ve seen just how good this team is all year. This will be a close game. The Dodgers will put pressure on Lackey and the Cubs’ offense will struggle to score enough, but in the end, look for the veteran to out pitch the rookie and look for the Cubs to bring this series even in a nail bitter, perhaps in typical postseason Cubs fashion with a late inning rally.
MLB Odds: Cubs 4, Dodgers 3
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers is scheduled for Wednesday, October 19, 2016, at 8:08 p.m. ET at Dodger Stadium. The contest will be televised nationally on FS1.
