Chicago beat the Dodgers in Game 5 to pull within one game of advancing to the World Series for the first time since 1945. They have two chances to get there, but their first crack at it will be an uphill battle with Clayton Kershaw taking the mound for the Dodgers.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Whether they wanted to admit it or not, the Cubs had a must-win game in Game 5 with Kershaw looming; and they came through with the offense taking the spotlight for the second straight night.
This has been a very entertaining series. We’ve seen the Dodgers’ shutdown the Cubs’ offense in back-to-back games and we’ve seen Chicago slam the ball in back-to-back contests as well. After plating 10 on Wednesday, they added eight more in an 8-4 victory on Thursday.
The Cubs are also back home where they’ve been amazing all year long, save for Game 2 of this series.
We’re back to the starters that shutdown the offense and Los Angeles needs them to have a repeat performance, starting with Kershaw in Game 6. The Dodgers’ offense hasn’t shown enough to be counted on to carry the team. A late game push on Thursday at least made that game somewhat close, but to force a Game 7, the big performance has to come from the Dodgers’ ace, not the offense.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Kershaw shut down the Cubs in Game 2. He pitched seven innings on short rest, throwing only 84 pitches. He got the full four days off this time should be well rested and ready to produce another strong pitching performance.
He was absolutely dominant in his last start. The Cubs were only able to muster two hits, walking once.
The 28-year old southpaw has delivered again and again in the regular season. He’s established himself as the most prolific hurler of a generation, having already won 126 games, posting a 2.37 ERA and recording 15 shutouts in route to three Cy Young Awards and a MVP.
Of course, that’s common knowledge. The thing that had been holding Kershaw back was a spotty postseason record. He may have just had his break through postseason moment earlier this series and has the chance to remove that postseason blemish with another strong start on Saturday.
With that monkey off his back, bank on Kershaw to be, well, Kershaw. He can completely dominant hitters. He’s got impeccable control with a 172 to 11 strikeout to walk ratio in the regular season. He can get key strikeouts, force weak contact and—basically—do whatever he wants on the hill.
To counter Kershaw, the Cubs have the pitcher that could very well be the 2016 NL Cy Young Award winner.
Kershaw’s numbers in the regular season are better than Kyle Hendricks’, but Kershaw’s injury has opened up the competition for the award.
Hendricks ended the season with a baseball leading 2.13 ERA. The 26-year old right-hander was nails in the second half and delivered consistently game in and game out.
His playoff starts haven’t been as strong. He lasted just three and two-thirds against the Giants, allowing two runs. He went five and a third in Game 2, but took the loss despite giving up only one run on three hits.
Simply put, in Game 2 Kershaw outdueled Hendricks. Game 6 could very well go the same way.
LIVE BETTING
For the second straight night, the Dodgers failed to get four innings from their starting pitcher. Julio Urias fell apart in the fourth in Game 4 and Dave Roberts had a short leash for Kenta Maeda in Game 5.
As a result, the Dodgers’ bullpen has carried more than its share of the load of late. The off day on Friday is paramount, but the middle of the Dodgers’ bullpen could still be a bit worn out. Typically, that’s fine for a Kershaw start.
The plan is to get at least seven out of the ace before going to Kenley Jansen to close it out. If anyone else takes the mound, things would’ve gone wrong for the Dodgers. The good thing for L.A. is both Kershaw and Jansen will be well rested.
On the Cubs’ side, Jon Lester did his thing to give the Cubs length in Game 5 after the bullpen got a bit of a work out in Game 4 behind John Lackey. It was the bullpen that allowed the Dodgers back in the game. With Hendricks not pitching as well in the postseason as he did in the regular year, the rested pen is a big plus. Aroldis Chapman giving up two runs in the ninth isn’t a good sign, however.
QUICK PICK
Take a bet on Kershaw in Game 6. He changed the narrative and the momentum of series in his first start and can easily do the same thing again.
Sure, the Cubs had a nice couple games at the plate, but that doesn’t change the fact that Chicago’s offense hasn’t been all that strong in the postseason as a whole. Those strong offensive performances also came against lesser pitchers than Kershaw and much came against the ‘other’ guys in the pen, not Kenley Jansen.
Granted, save for some flashes, the Dodgers’ offense has also been a bit of a disappointment though the team will be happy to have a right-hander starting instead of a southpaw. That’ll lead to a few more Dodger runs and, with Kershaw on the hill, a few runs is enough to get the win.
Look for another low scoring game with Kershaw taking control of this game to force a Game 7.
MLB Odds: Dodgers 3, Cubs 2
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