The Giants return home, but are now in need of three straight wins against a team that hasn’t lost three straight since early July. They cannot get ahead of themselves, however. They need to take this one game at a time and have the right man on the mound in this must win showdown.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
After a 1-0 win in Game 1, Game 2 featured a bit of everything. The Giants and Cubs bullpens were each busy, the Cubs got a home run by a relief pitcher and MadBum pinch hit. It was the first time since 1924 for both a relief pitcher home run and a pinch hit appearance by a starter in the postseason.
The busy pens shouldn’t impact Game 3 too much with the off day on Sunday, but the Cubs second straight win could impact how both the Cubs and Giants approach Monday’s game. Bruce Bochy and San Francisco will have to play and manage with a sense of urgency, making decisions for today and today only. The Cubs have a bit more wiggle room.
With a 2-0 series lead, the Cubs have now also taken six of their last seven games head-to-head against the Giants. That said, San Francisco did take two of three from Chicago in their series on the west coast. That’s at least a silver lining for San Fran.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
If you wanted someone to start a must win postseason game. In all of baseball, the first name that comes to mind is probably Madison Bumgarner and he gets the nod for San Francisco in Game 3.
The Wild Card game required the Giants to turn to their ace in Game 3 instead of Game 1 and they need him to perform.
In 2014, Bumgarner established himself as one of the best postseason pitchers of all time. His World Series performance was legendary with a 0.43 ERA in 21 innings. He posted another strong postseason performance in the Wild Card game, holding the Mets scoreless in a complete game shutout, allowing four hits.
In his career the lefty is 8-3 with a 1.94 ERA in 15 postseason appearances.
In the regular season, Bumgarner went 15-9 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.024 WHIP. He was a workhorse, pitching 226.2 innings, including four complete games and a shutout on top of his performance against the Mets.
Bumgarner’s ability to go deep in games is big for a team that has had its share of relief pitching concerns.
The 27-year old southpaw faced this Cubs team twice in the regular season, allowing two runs in 13.2 innings. At home, he held them scoreless in 7.2 innings of work.
While Bumgarner’s numbers are staggering, particularly those in the postseason, the Cubs have yet another ace toeing the rubber in 2015 Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta.
Much like Bumgarner this year, Arrieta tossed a complete game shutout in the Wild Card game, but then proceeded to struggle the rest of the postseason. That’s not to say Bumgarner will follow suit, but it’s to point out that Arrieta does have something to prove in terms of postseason performance.
In the regular season, he followed up his 22 win season and 1.77 ERA with an 18-8 record and 3.10 ERA. While the ERA is quite a bit higher, it’s still very strong. His WHIP meanwhile is just 1.084 as he’s remained just as unhittable with a league leading 6.3 hits per nine innings. It’s the second straight year he’s lead the league in that category.
Keep an eye on Arrieta’s control early. He’s walked quite a few more batters in 2016. He’s also coming off a seven-run, five inning start against the Pirates. He’s generally reliable, but has had a few clunkers.
LIVE BETTING
Offense has come at a premium in this series. The Cubs scored a single run in Game 1 with Javier Baez slamming a late home run. They have the power advantage compared to the Giants and that came into play in both games.
Game 2 had a few more runs, but three of Chicago’s five runs were driven in by pitchers, the regular hitters were more or less held down again. Willson Contreras was the only hitter with more than one hit.
On the other side, the Giants have two runs and 12 hits in two games. They can scratch out a few runs, but aren’t going to win this game on offense. They need Bumgarner on top of his game. San Francisco’s offense has been cold for a long time now. Brandon Belt isn’t the first half player, Buster Posey’s power is mostly gone and Angel Pagan is the only batter that’s looked strong in the first two games.
QUICK PICK
Bumgarner’s on the mound and the Giants are returning home where they have a great environment and animated fan base that will be on their side.
If San Francisco is to steal a game in this series, Monday is the day. Look for Bumgarner to once again put the team on his shoulders and carry them to a victory in what could be yet another low scoring game.
Take the under in the run total. Bumgarner will hold the Cubs down and while Arrieta’s had some issues so has the Giants’ offense. San Francisco has only scored five runs in three postseason games, stealing the Wild Card game with a Connor Gillespie home run. There’s likely to be a different offensive hero for San Fran, but a similar result is very likely.
MLB Odds: Giants 3, Cubs 1
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