The Giants got to Aroldis Chapman and the Cubs’ bullpen in the eighth on Monday and eventually parlayed that into a walk off win to stay alive to play another day. The two teams will once again occupy the late spot on the schedule as the Giants look to extend this series once again.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs looked like they were in position to put away this series in the second innings of Game 3 with Anthony Rizzo stepping to the plate with two on and a three run lead.
Madison Bumgarner was able to get out of trouble, limit the damage and gut out three more innings of scoreless baseball to keep the Giants without shouting distance. The bullpen than followed him up with a few shutout innings of their own as the San Francisco bats finally got going, delivering some magic of their own.
Heading into Game 3, the Giants had only two runs in two games while the Cubs pitchers drove in more runs than the entire San Francisco lineup. Cubs pitchers came through again on Monday with Jake Arrieta going deep, but the pitchers on the mound struggled late in the game.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
This Game 4 matchup features an interesting matchup between John Lackey and Matt Moore.
Lackey is the elder statesman in the Cubs rotation and no stranger to postseason action. The 37-year old right-hander has pitched in 23 playoff games, starting 20 of them. In that time, he’s thrown 127.1 innings, going 8-5 with a 3.11 ERA and 1.217 WHIP. Last year, he pitched in two NLDS games for the Cardinals against his current team, giving up four runs in 10.1 innings, but allowing only six hits while striking out 10.
The righty had a huge year last year, the best statistically of his career. He didn’t do quite as well in 2016, but still produced an ERA+ of 120, going 11-8 with an ERA of 3.35 and a 1.057 WHIP.
The veteran is a reliable, dependable arm. He’s not as dominant as the Cubs first three starters, but he can be counted on for a quality outing. He’s delivered plenty of those this season.
Lackey last faced San Francisco in the beginning of September. He went just five innings in the start. It was his first start back after missing a couple weeks.
Despite the shorter outing, he allowed two runs—one earned—on a single hit and one walk. The Cubs eventually won that game.
On the other side, Moore has been hit-or-miss since joining the Giants midseason. In 12 starts with San Francisco, he’s 6-5 with a 4.08 ERA, but his WHIP was elevated as he was walking more than four batters per nine innings. He was able to wiggle his way out of trouble most of the time, but extra base runners against a strong hitting club like Chicago is not a recipe for success.
The young southpaw isn’t as much of a certainty as Lackey, but he’s thrown his fair share of good games. In fact, in his last two starts before the postseason he combined to go 15.2 innings, giving up just two runs on nine hits while striking out 17 and walking two.
LIVE BETTING
Jake Arrieta plated all three runs for the Cubs in Game 3 before the team mounted a comeback in the ninth. In Game 2, Travis Wood went yard and Kyle Hendricks drove in two in the 5-2 win. In Game 1, the lone run game on a Javier Baez solo shot.
Given that rundown, the Cubs’ position players have accounted for just three runs in the first 26 innings of the series. The Cubs’ pitchers accounted for six.
We saw the Giants’ offense come to life in the eighth inning of Game 3, the Cubs followed suit in the ninth. Eventually, San Francisco eeked out the win in walk off fashion, but both offenses may be primed for big games on Tuesday with neither team sending out one of their top three pitchers.
If this does turn into an offensive game, the advantage has to go to the Cubs. They’re loaded top to bottom and have plenty of depth to afford Joe Maddon excellent matchup plays. The Giants, meanwhile, have struggled to score runs consistently throughout their second half swoon, going on the better part of two and a half months.
QUICK PICK
The bats have come to life and the Cubs should be in position to take the series in Game 4 behind Jonn Lackey.
Overall, the Cubs are just too good and too deep. Moore struggles with walks, the Cubs have a patient offense team that isn’t afraid to take a walk and pass the baton to the next guy.
Look for Chicago to get on the board early and often against Moore while Lackey gives another solid, though unspectacular performance. That should be enough to slam the door with Aroldis Chapman unlikely to blow a save in back-to-back games.
MLB Odds: Cubs 7, Giants 4
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