We’ve reach a potential elimination game and the Dodgers now have their backs against the wall facing a must-win scenario. Look for all hands on deck as Dave Roberts will play whatever cards he needs to play to shift this series back to Washington for a Game 5.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
The Dodgers grabbed a Game 1 victory, beating Max Scherzer despite a less than impressive start from their own ace, Clayton Kershaw.
Game 2, however, shifted the momentum with the Nationals capturing the victory in a game that featured the bullpens for both teams starting in the fifth inning. Jose Lobaton and Daniel Murphy were the heroes in that game.
The Nationals carried the momentum into Game 3, grabbing the early lead in the third inning can then expanding that lead in ninth in route to a 8-3 victory. Washington is now in control. It’s a shift from the regular season where the Dodgers topped Washington in five of six games.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Dave Roberts announced that Julio Urias was going to get the ball in Game 4, but with back-to-back losses and a 2-1 series deficit, the debate rages and the ball could go back to Kershaw on short rest. You don’t want to lose with your best on the bench, but if Kershaw pitches in Game 4, L.A. will need Rich Hill to pitch Game 5 on short rest.
While Kershaw has the stuff to throw a no-hitter any time out, he was exceptionally hittable in Game 1, allowing three earned in five innings as he struggled with location. The Nationals bats have capitalized in this series on L.A.’s pitchers’ inability to locate their breaking ball.
Kershaw’s less than stellar Game 1 continued a trend of mediocre postseason performances for the otherwise best pitcher in the game. The struggles could play a role as there’s been much made of his inability to live up to his regular season numbers in October.
Despite all of that, Kershaw’s got the resume to expect dominance nearly every time out. He pitched to a 1.69 ERA in his 21 starts this year and has a career 2.37 ERA in 1,760 career regular season innings. He’s a four time ERA champion and three time Cy Young Award winner. He’s outpitched everyone over his nine year career and is still in his prime at 28-years old.
While Kershaw is a special talent, it is important to note that typically pitching on short rest doesn’t work. Since 1995, there have been 121 playoff games pitched on short rest with those starters combining to go 35-40 with a 4.35 ERA. That’s not that great when you consider most of these pitchers are aces.
This is an elimination games to boot and these short rest starts in elimination games have resulted in a 9-18 starter record in 45 games. Of course, there are good outings mixed in to these mediocre numbers including a quality start for Clayton Kershaw last year in just this situation. Before that, however, it had been 10 years since such a situation produced a quality start.
On the other side, if Roberts chooses Urias, he’s just 20-years old and has only 77 major league innings. He is, however, well rested and does have dominating stuff. He’s faced Washington twice in his young career, combining to allow three runs and 11 hits in nine innings.
In his brief major league career, he’s pitched to a 3.39 ERA and the southpaw had a 1.40 ERA in 45 Triple-A innings. One issue with starting Urias is the bullpen. They’re spent and Urias doesn’t go deep in games.
With Washington up a game in the series, they’ll turn to Joe Ross to try and close this thing out in four and avoid returning home for a winner-take-all showdown.
Washington has more wiggle room with the series lead, but he’s not one to go deep into a game and that could be a serious problem. With the rainout, they’ve had less rest for the bullpens and the Nats’ pen has been heavily used the last two games with Tanner Roark’s injury and Gio Gonzalez’s short start on Monday.
Look for Reynaldo Lopez to be in the pen to back up Ross if he’s unable to go six or more. He hasn’t pitched six innings since June. In three starts back from the disabled list in September, he combined for just 9.2 innings. He did only allow three runs in that span, however.
Ross is 7-5 with a 3.43 ERA in 19 starts. He’s been hittable with 9.3 hits allowed per nine innings, but has been able to leave runners on and avoid major damage more often than not.
This will be the 23-year old right-hander’s first postseason appearance. That leaves uncertainty about how you can expect the righty to respond. He did pitch well in a start against the Dodgers in the regular season, allowing two runs in 6.1 innings.
LIVE BETTING
The bullpens have been active in this series. These are the top two pens in the National League, but the Dodgers pen failed to deliver on Monday. Kenley Jansen, the team’s most reliable relief arm, allowed four runs to the Nats in the ninth, further building Washington’s confidence on offense.
The part of the team that was the most reliable for Los Angeles hasn’t been that. Kershaw’s been hit, Jansen’s been hit and the Dodgers’ confidence has been hit.
The Dodgers threw seven different relievers on Monday. The Nationals threw four, including Mark Melancon who has appeared in all three games of this series. He’ll be available to pitch again, but will all the work have an ill effect?
As a whole it’s been the National’s bullpen that’s led the way for this team in the series. They’ll have to do it one more time.
QUICK PICK
Ross’s inability to go deep in the game is a concern, but with Lopez on deck behind him and plenty of rest the Nationals are a bit insulated against a shorter outing.
The Nationals have already hit Kershaw. And, if Urias gets the ball instead, he possess much the same issues as Ross but without the safety net. Plus, the Nats have already hit Jansen, too. They’re swinging the bats better than the Dodgers and have all the momentum in this series having taken the last two games.
It’s up to Kershaw or Urias to shift the momentum, but Kershaw hasn’t been the same postseason pitcher as he is in the regular season and Urias is inexperienced and hasn’t pitched in 11 days.
Look for the National’s to close this series out, and look to take the over in run total should it be depressed as a result of Kershaw pitching. Bet on Washington to continue swinging the bats even against Kershaw. While the combo of Ross and Lopez aren’t likely to deliver a shutout either, the Nats pen has been better in this series.
MLB Odds: Nationals 5, Dodgers 3
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers is scheduled for Tuesday, October 11, 2016, at 5:05 p.m. ET at Dodgers Stadium. The contest will be televised nationally on FS1.
