ODDS ANALYSIS
The Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles continue to occupy the bottom of the AL East standings, but recent success has them thinking of better things.
The Sox swept the Oakland A’s over the weekend to complete a 5-2 homestand ending in the black 2.05 units. The Sox have stumbled for most of the season in the red 9.95 units, but the homestand has inspired the Boston faithful. The Sox are 0-3 in Rick Porcello’s last three outings cashing the over twice.
The Orioles took two of three in Cleveland over the weekend and return home with wins in three of their last four games. Baltimore won four of the first seven games with the Sox this season, including two of three at Camden Yards in late April when they slaughtered Boston 18-7 in the series finale. The teams played all three games over the scoreline in that series but the under is 6-0-1 in Wei-Yin Chen’s last seven starts.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Rick Porcello (4-5, 5.01 ERA) bounced back from a pair of rough outings with an eight-inning two-run effort Wednesday, although he suffered his third straight loss. He gave up five hits with five strikeouts and no walks.
Porcello was tagged for 12 runs on 18 hits in 11 innings in two consecutive starts against the Orioles in April and has a 5.21 ERA in 11 career starts against them.
Wei-Yin Chen (1-4, 3.18 ERA) fanned a season-high nine batters over 6.1 innings of a no-decision Thursday. He allowed five hits and two runs in a 3-2 win at Houston throwing 95 pitches in the outing.
Chen allowed four hits and two runs with five strikeouts over eight innings in a 5-4 home win over the Sox on Apr. 25. He owns a 3.79 ERA over 76 innings in 13 career starts against Boston with a 5-4 record.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“Wow, seven runs in one inning. A lot of people talk about our offense. This is the kind of offense we can be right there.” – Xander Bogaerts on the Red Sox’ seven-run eighth inning Sunday to claim a victory and sweep the Athletics
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
It was only one game, but what a game, rather what an inning it was for the Red Sox. The beleaguered group had been 1-26 in games in which they trailed after seven innings and had not won three straight games since early April. The Sox put together their best inning of the season on Sunday, battling back from a 4-0 deficit with a seven-run, eight-hit eighth inning against five Oakland pitchers to pull out a 7-4 win in the finale of their homestand. “This is a momentum builder for us, no doubt. The way in which we won, it was as big as the win itself. It was a much-needed win,” manager John Farrell said. It was the kind of win a team can build from and now it’s up to Sox players to do just that.
PROP TALK
One player who has kept the Red Sox from falling deeper on the offensive stat sheets is second baseman Dustin Pedroia, who’s hitting a cool .483 in June after getting two hits against the Athletics on Sunday. In seven games this month Pedroia has 14 hits raising his average 25 points to .313. Pedroia has haunted Wei-Yin Chen during his career with a .469 average off him with 15 hits and five driven in. Pedroia has been a sparkplug at the top of the order and if the Sox look to rediscover their offense and run production, he will certainly be a part of it. Look for the scrappy infielder to get a few hits on Chen, he almost always does, and score a few times.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
One game doesn’t count as a slump breaker, though the Red Sox are happy with the result. Boston scored seven times in the eighth inning Sunday, its biggest outburst in a single frame this season, and the seven runs scored in the win were the most since putting up an eight-spot on the Angels on May 23. The Sox enter the series playing perhaps their best baseball since the first week of the season and Rick Porcello is coming off one of his finer outings, but he’s struggled against the O’s this season and during his career. Baltimore starter Wei-Yin Chen has been far more dependable and shuts down the Sox to get the win.
Baltimore 5, Boston 3
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