ODDS ANALYSIS
The Mariners started a nine-game road trip with a clunker, failing to hold a three-run lead in a 9-4 loss to the Orioles on Tuesday to cash the over, ending a streak of five straight under plays. Seattle has the AL’s top home run hitter in Nelson Cruz and have slugged the second-most homers in the league but the M’s are at the bottom of the rankings in runs scored and the under is 5-1 in their last six and 21-16-1 overall. The Mariners are a poor play at the betting window down 3.13 units on the moneyline in their last six and 8.5 units for the season.
The Orioles climbed above .500 on their current nine-game homestand with Tuesday’s 9-4 win, cashing the over for the first time in five games. The O’s are up slightly on the moneyline at 0.49 units through the first seven games of the stand but are in the red 2.29 units for the season. The under is 5-2 on the homestand and 17-16-3 overall, however the over is 10-9-1 in the Orioles’ first 20 home games. The O’s have lost in each of Chris Tillman’s last four starts and have cashed the under in two of his last three.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Seattle’s JA Happ (3-1, 2.98 ERA) had another strong outing Friday with seven innings of one-run ball in a no-decision against the Red Sox. He walked one and struck out three getting 11 fly ball outs. He’s allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his seven starts this season.
Happ is 2-3 with a 2.93 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 46 innings in seven starts and eight career games against the Orioles.
Chris Tillman (2-5, 6.34 ERA) missed his last scheduled start with back stiffness and will pitch for the first time since May 12 when he gave up nine hits and five runs in 6.2 innings in a 10-2 loss to Toronto.
Tillman has won each of his six career starts against the Mariners with a 2.03 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, allowing just 25 hits in 40 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We’ve been struggling the past couple of weeks. We’ve been struggling with the bats so it was good to see the bats alive again. We’ve got to go out there and continue.” – Orioles third baseman Manny Machado
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Seattle starter JA Happ is a fly ball pitcher, no doubt about it. He had 11 fly ball outs in his seven innings in his last start against Boston and his new home at Safeco Field fits his style perfectly. But Happ isn’t pitching in spacious Safeco Thursday and those fly balls can quickly turn into home runs. Happ gave up 22 homers last season with Toronto but has sliced that number considerably this season, giving up just four with two of those coming in his last road start on May 3 in Houston. The O’s have long ball hitters in Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Manny Machado and Jimmy Paredes and have clubbed 45 on the year. Look for one of those guys to go yard Thursday.
PROP TALK
Nelson Cruz returned to Baltimore and slugged his league-leading 16th home run of the season on Tuesday. Cruz topped MLB with 40 homers last season as a member of the O’s before signing a free agent deal with Seattle and he’s continued his torrid long-ball pace. Cruz not only hits home runs he hits for average as well with a three-hit night Tuesday upping his team high average to .347. Cruz enjoys facing the O’s. He is a lifetime .344 hitter in 160 career at-bats and his only hit in eight lifetime at-bats against Chris Tillman was, you guessed it, a home run. Cruz touches up Tillman and the O’s for a few hits Thursday and may even go yard again.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It’s hard to imagine where the Mariners would be without Nelson Cruz, who leads baseball in home runs. The M’s, despite the exploits of the slugger, are a poor run producing team, ranking near the bottom of the AL. Robinson Cano has struggled along with just about everyone else in the lineup and if not for solid pitching the M’s could be deeper in the AL West than they already are. Starter JA Happ has been outstanding but his numbers are much worse on the road and the O’s touch him up Thursday.
The Orioles had been stagnant offensively until a 13-hit attack Tuesday led them to a 9-4 win giving them consecutive victories for the first time in two weeks. The O’s look to build off those wins to make a run at the leaders in the AL East. Chris Tillman has been erratic this season but a few extra days of rest to relieve stiffness in his back will benefit the veteran righty as he attempts to continue his dominance over the Mariners.
Baltimore 5, Seattle 4
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