The Chicago Cubs have won three of their last four games and currently sit at 50-42 overall, but are still 8.5 back in the NL Central. They will hope an easy weekend series will help them gain some ground against the dismal Philadelphia Phillies.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Phillies are 30 games under .500 at 33-63 and the worst team in baseball, having lost $1,984. The Cubs, meanwhile, find themselves in the positive at $320.
While Chicago has won three of their last four, the Phillies are actually not far removed from a four game winning streak where they swept the Miami Marlins. They also took the first game of a series against Tampa Bay, before falling 1-0 on Tuesday.
The shocking winning streak aside, the Phillies will hit the road again for the first of three on Friday where they’re just 11-37. The Cubs check in 25-20 at home.
PITCHING MATCHUP
The Cubs signed Jon Lester to be their ace atop the rotation for the next several years. He’s had a few struggles and isn’t the team’s strongest starter this year, but is still a pretty good pitcher. He is also coming off a strong outing in Atlanta, holding the Braves to just two hits and no runs as he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning.
Overall, the veteran southpaw is 5-8, but owns a 3.37 ERA and 1.207 WHIP in his 117 2/3 innings of work. So far in July, Lester has made four starts and is 1-2, but has pitched to a 1.27 ERA.
The Phillies will also turn to a veteran on Friday, but theirs doesn’t have nearly the track record of Lester. For Philadelphia, it will be Jerome Williams taking the mound for the first time since June 16.
The righty is just 3-7 this year with a 6.43 ERA and 1.700 WHIP in 70 innings, but unfortunately the Phillies don’t have many better options with several pitchers on the disabled list and more underperforming.
QUOTE TO NOTE
The numbers show that Lester pitched well his last time out, but his personal catcher, David Ross, was especially impressed, saying:
“I thought he did a great job pitching to a hitter’s strengths, as well as a hitter’s weaknesses when he needed to. Whatever I asked him to do, he did it.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Ross will likely get Friday’s start at Wrigley, catching Lester again. Given the bat of Kyle Schwarber, that is a significant downgrade to the team’s offense.
Chicago called up Schwarber when Miguel Montero hit the disabled list and on the year he is hitting .410 with three home runs in 11 major league games. In the minors, he combined to hit .323 with 16 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A.
With Schwarber likely sitting, the team has a potent bat on the bench and while Ross gives the team another near automatic out alongside Lester, he does help improve his pitching.
Still, even with Ross in the lineup, the Cubs have some pop still in there with Anthony Rizzo who has a team best .920 OPS, Kris Bryant and Jorge Soler who is beginning to rediscover his stroke.
All in all, the Cubs are still below average in run production this year, but compared to the Phillies, they’re the 1927 Yankees!
Outside of Cole Hamels, the Phillies struggle on the mound. Outside of Maikel Franco, they cannot hit either.
The team is above only the Mets in runs scored in the National League, but have scored just four more than them in two more games. As a result, based on rate, they’re still at the bottom of the league averaging just 3.44 runs per game.
Outside of Franco’s .818 OPS, the team has very little else. Cesar Hernandez has minimal pop, but is getting on base at a .359 clip. Ben Revere is reaching base at a .334 clip. Otherwise, there is an occasional extra base hit from Ryan Howard and little else.
PROP TALK
Only a few players have any real history against Williams, but given his struggles this season, it’s likely that many Cubs will reach base against him.
On the other side, Lester has a bit more experience against the Phillies. He is 4-0 against them in his career and has held Jeff Francoeur to a single and nothing else in 15 at bats. Meanwhile, Howard is 2 for 11 against him and Carlos Ruiz is hitless in 11 at bats.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Phillies have a solid back end of their bullpen with Jonathan Papelbon and Ken Giles who each sport sub 2.00 ERAs, but little else and the back of a pen is only helpful if you can get to them with the lead.
Given the Phillies meager offense and inability of Williams to get many people out on the mound, Friday could be a long day for Philadelphia fans.
Chicago 8, Philadelphia 2
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