Chicago Cubs’ starter Jon Lester has dominated the Phillies over his career and he gets the ball Friday in the series opener, looking to slow down a Philadelphia club that has won five of six after the All-Star break.
The Phillies have won just 11 road games this season, the fewest in the majors.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Phillies are playing their best baseball of the season, winning five of six games after the All-Star break, up 5.36 units on the moneyline. Already the lowest scoring offense in the NL, the Phillies have been more than a run per game better in the second half, which has led to their 5-1 start out of the break. But those games came at Citizens Bank Park and now the Phillies hit the road with their major league-worst 11-37 record. They’ve lost five straight away games and eight of their last 10 and are in the red 19.23 units overall. The Cubs like playing below the scoreline with Jon Lester on the bump, cashing the under seven times with a push in his last eight starts overall. The under is 8-1-2 in Lester’s 11 starts at Wrigley Field.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jerome Williams (3-7, 6.43 ERA) makes his first start since June 16, when he strained his left hamstring. His results prior to that have underwhelmed, but the Phillies need him to finish the season, especially if they trade Cole Hamels. Williams had a 3.71 ERA through his first three starts but plummeted after that, allowing three or more runs in all but one of his last 11 starts and pitched past the sixth inning only once in that span.
Williams has more troubles on the road with an 8.72 ERA, 2.00 WHIP and .357 opponent’s batting average while surrendering six home runs in 32 innings over seven starts.
Jon Lester (5-8, 3.37 ERA) comes off a strange win in Atlanta. A scoring change made a first inning infield hit an error, which meant the lefty had a surprise no-hitter going. However he served up two singles in the eighth to end the suspense. Lester has an ERA of 1.27 over 28.1 July innings spanning four starts and he’s allowed just two hits in two of those starts.
In five lifetime starts against the Phillies, Lester is 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 31 strikeouts against just eight walks.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“Your guess is as good as mine. I don’t know what is going on in the trade thing. We’ll have to wait and see, but as it stands right now, the guys who are here are just playing to win games and that is all I can ask.” – Phillies interim manager Pete Mackanin about what will happen with his club at the trade deadline.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
If the rest of the season is any indication, this likely won’t be a series where starters provide many innings. The Phillies and Cubs have combined to pitch 606 innings from the bullpen this season, an average of just over three innings per game. The two teams are second and fifth, respectively, in the NL in bullpen innings. The Cubs are likely to decrease their starter’s innings even more after adding former closer Rafael Soriano to their bullpen mix this week. In 2010, Soriano collected 45 saves with a 1.73 ERA in Tampa Bay for current manager Joe Maddon. He adds depth to the back end of the Cubs bullpen. Meanwhile, Phillies’ closer Johathan Papelbon continues to express his desire for a trade. If granted, Philly’s bullpen gets much weaker.
PROP TALK
Manager Joe Maddon has reservations about using rookie Kyle Schwarber behind the plate when Lester pitches, he better let that pass. Schwarber almost single-handedly won Tuesday’s game in Cincinnati with a game-tying two-run homer in the ninth and the game-winning blast in the 13th inning. Oh, and he also added an RBI double as part of a four-hit night. Not bad for his 11th major league game. He hit .438 in the series with seven hits in 16 at-bats and is raking at .409 over his first 13 games. He’s also proven he can handle the pitching staff which makes him the first option at catcher. And you can’t have that bat resting on the bench with other guys struggling.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
With stars Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant struggling, getting the chance to hack off Jerome Williams might be just what they need to break out of their offensive malaise. Williams has been a punching bag this season and it surprises me he still has a job. But someone has to fall on the sword as the Phils begin their rebuild. Williams was never an ace, heck he’s never been a middle-of-the-rotation guy either, and he’s only had a few decent seasons in his 13-year career, but he keeps hanging on. The Cubbies get the offense to support Lester, who’s been dialed in and finally looks like the ace the team is paying him to be.
Chicago 8, Philadelphia 2
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