ODDS ANALYSIS
If the Phillies could play all their games at Citizens Bank Park they would be a .500 team. Unfortunately that doesn’t happen and the Phils have been a train wreck on the road. A loss Wednesday at Cincinnati was their seventh straight, dropping them to 7-23 in away games. It’s the worst road record for the club since before the attack on Pearl Harbor. Needles to say the Phils are the least profitable road team in baseball, down 13.71 units.
They have been a strong play on the over recently, going 8-2 in their last 10 games overall and 16-10-4 in their 30 road swings. The Phils earned a split of a four-game set between the clubs in mid-May taking the final two by limiting the Bucs to two runs in each of those games.
The Pirates avoided a sweep at the hands of the lowly Brewers, squeaking out a 2-0 win Wednesday. After winning seven times during a 10-game road trip with some explosive offensive numbers, the Bucs returned home and lost the first two to Milwaukee clawing out one run. Pittsburgh plated six runs in its last four games cashing the under each time. The Pirates haven’t been all that good behind starter Jeff Locke, winning just two of his last eight starts.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Signed by Philadelphia on Monday, Kevin Correia (0-0, NA) will make his first big league start of 2015. The veteran right-hander, who earlier asked for his release from the San Francisco Giants, has a career 4.59 ERA for five Major League teams. He posted a 3.58 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across 37.2 innings at Triple-A Sacramento this year.
Correia won 24 games over two seasons (2011-12) with the Pirates and is 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA in eight career games – five starts – against them.
Jeff Locke (3-3, 5.37 ERA) came away with a no-decision in Saturday’s loss to the Braves, surrendering four runs on seven hits over 6.1 innings. The lefty has a career 7-4 record pitching on five days of rest.
Locke has been much sharper at home this season and faces the team which he’s had the most success against during his career. He’s 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA in four career starts against Philadelphia. He matched a career-high with nine strikeouts giving up just three hits in seven innings at Philadelphia on Sep. 8, 2014.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“It seems like the last couple of weeks we’ve been trying to come from behind, playing catch up in every game. We got out-homered in the series. This has been going on for a few weeks now.” – Philadelphia manager Ryne Sandberg after his team lost for the 13th time in 16 games and the seventh straight time on the road Wednesday at Cincinnati.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Not since Joe DiMaggio was hitting safely in 56 straight games and Ted Williams batted .406 have the Phillies been this miserable on the road. The Phils lost 5-2 at Cincinnati on Wednesday, dropping their seventh straight road game falling to 7-23 away from Citizens Bank Park. It’s Phillies’ worst road mark through 30 games since 1941 when they started 6-24. The Phillies were out-homered in the series 8-0 and haven’t won a road series since Sept. 5-7, 2014 at Washington.
PROP TALK
Andrew McCutchen understands the importance of occasionally taking a day. The former MVP has been bothered by a troublesome knee throughout the season and was hobbled by it Sunday during the final innings in a win at Atlanta. He went hitless in five trips in that game, ending a seven-game hit streak, and manager Clint Hurdle sat him for Monday’s game with Milwaukee. The star center fielder smacked a double Tuesday in his return to the lineup and had two hits in Wednesday’s victory. Following an off-day Thursday, we expect Cutch, who leads the Bucs’ regulars with a .286 average, to come out swinging against Kevin Correia with a few hits and runs scored in a Pirates win.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Phillies signed veteran Kevin Correia away from the Giants after he opted out of his minor league deal and toss him into the starting rotation. Correia was, at one point, a serviceable starter in the big leagues, but his numbers have never been great and now at age 34 they aren’t going to improve. The Phillies need help on the hill and Correia could eat some innings, but he’s not going to reverse the team’s fortunes and is likely a body to take the mound every fifth day when Cole Hamels gets traded. The Phils are treading water until some of their pitching prospects develop or others are obtained through trades. Until then Correia will take the hill and get cuffed around.
Pittsburgh 6, Philadelphia 2
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