ODDS ANALYSIS
The Pittsburgh Pirates are the hottest team in baseball following a three-game sweep of the Giants gave them 11 wins in their last 13 games. The Pirates have been good at home, but the last seven games of their successful streak have taken place on the road where they are 5-2 over their last seven in the black 3.16 units on the moneyline. The Bucs improved to 14-15 overall in away games and are still in the red 1.22 units. They continue their road swing with a weekend set in Atlanta after going 4-0-3 on the over in their last seven.
The Braves return home after a 4-6 road trip where they scored 37 runs in the last five games with the over going 7-2-1 in the 10 games. Atlanta has been a strong play on the over at 32-18-3 for the year and 14-6-2 at home.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Charlie Morton (2-0, 1.93 ERA) has pitched well in two starts – both wins – since coming off the disabled list after hip surgery. He threw seven innings Saturday in San Diego, allowing two runs – one earned – on three hits with 16 of his 24 outs coming on ground balls. He’s gone seven innings in each of his starts yielding just 11 hits.
Morton began his career with the Braves in 2008 before coming over in a trade the next year. He’s 0-2 with a 2.57 ERA covering 14 innings in three career starts against his former club but hasn’t faced them since the 2011 season.
Williams Perez (1-0, 2.66 ERA) allowed four hits over seven innings in the Braves’ shutout of the Giants on Saturday and has excelled since moving into the starting rotation giving up just two earned runs with 17 strikeouts over 18 innings in three outings.
The rookie faces the Pirates for the first time looking to give up one or zero runs for the fourth straight start.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“I’ve been working this whole time. It’s not like I’ve been shut down. I was working on my mechanics. That leads me to be able to make pitches and repeat it and get action on the ball. I expect to do well. That’s why I’m here. – Pirates pitcher Charlie Morton after returning to the starting rotation following hip surgery
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
From Los Angeles to San Francisco to Phoenix, the Braves’ bullpen had its struggles along the way. During Atlanta’s 10-game road trip relievers had a 9.00 ERA, allowing 22 earned runs in 22 innings. That was punctuated in Wednesday’s 9-8 loss to the Dbacks when the bullpen surrendered four runs, all coming after the sixth inning, in a game the Braves once led 6-0. Entering Wednesday’s game the bullpen had allowed 86 runs, the most in the Majors, adding four more to that total in the loss. “We need to fix that,” Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said after the implosion.
PROP TALK
It’s hard to keep a former MVP down for long and Andrew McCutchen is just too good. McCutchen ended the first month of the season hitting below .200 but that number has been climbing steadily since and reached its highest point since the first game of the season with a hit Wednesday against the Giants, extending his hitting streak to six games. Cutch had six hits in 10 at-bats in SF and was twice robbed of a hit by outstanding defensive plays. He enters the weekend hitting .293 on the season and is a career .300 hitter at Turner Field. He’s never faced Williams Perez, but I don’t think that’ll be a problem.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
When a team is playing as well as the Pirates are right now, it’s hard to bet against them. The pitching has been phenomenal and with MVP Andrew McCuthen on a roll so are the Buccos. McCutchen and Josh Harrison were both mired in prolonged slumps but both have slugged their way out and their hitting has been contagious, leading to a lot of Pittsburgh wins.
The Braves are scoring a lot of runs themselves but their pitching hasn’t been nearly as effective, particularly the bullpen, which had a disastrous road trip. Williams Perez has been good, but the Pirates are simply playing great baseball right now. Look for that run to continue.
Pittsburgh 5, Atlanta 3
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