The Pittsburgh Pirates (29-24, $154) are rolling and have elevated themselves to one of the league’s best teams as they head to Atlanta to take on the Braves (26-27, $297) with the middle game slated for Saturday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
It took a while, but things finally started to click for the Pirates who always had the pitching, but finally got Andrew McCutchen and Josh Harrison going to spark their offense.
Over their last 13 games, the Pirates have recorded 11 wins, scoring at least four runs in each of those triumphs.
On the other side, the Braves dropped two straight against the Diamondbacks to lose their latest series. They’ve failed to win any of their last three series.
PITCHING MATCHUP
In this swing game of the three game set, the Braves would appear to have the upper hand on the mound with ace Julio Teheran taking the ball against the Pirates’ backend arm of Jeff Locke.
The southpaw Locke is just 3-3 on the year with a 5.34 ERA and 1.545 WHIP as he is the weak link in an otherwise dominant rotation.
The 27-year old’s spot in the rotation is on shaky ground so he will be plenty motivated, but that is likely not enough for someone that looked overly hittable his last time out, allowing seven runs—six earned—in four innings against the Padres.
In four career starts, Locke is 1-1 against the Braves with a 6.20 ERA and 1.869 WHIP as he walked 16 in 20 1/3 innings.
The one good thing for Locke is that his opponent, the 24-year old righty Teheran has had his share of struggles this season as well.
In 11 starts, Teheran is 4-2, but has an inflated 4.87 ERA and 1.541 WHIP. To make matters worse, his FIP is even higher at 5.55 as he’s struggled commanding the strike zone, walking 3.8 per nine innings and allowing a dozen home runs.
While the numbers are bad, Teheran is coming off a quality start and does have five of those on the season and five outings where he’s allowed no more than a single run.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Teheran’s numbers in his last outing were encouraging, but manager Fredi Gonzalez spoke after the game, noting that despite the performance, Teheran is still not quite right, saying:
“I didn’t feel comfortable the whole game with Julio. I know the numbers showed different, but it wasn’t the normal Julio Teheran outing that you feel pretty good about.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
With Teheran not quite right and Locke the weak link in Pittsburgh, this game could boil down to the offense and that is good news for the Pirates.
Pittsburgh has scored 16 runs in its last three games and finally has the lineup clicking on nearly all cylinders.
The team has Andrew McCutchen back in the team lead in many categories including OPS (.876), total bases (93) and RBI (34). Meanwhile, it also has Jung Ho Kang continuing to show a solid bat (.791 OPS), Starling Marte providing insurance (.774 OPS) and Josh Harrison heating up.
With Harrison hitting again, the weak spots go back to Jordy Mercer at shortstop who is losing playing time to Kang and Gregory Polanco in right field who, though OPSing just .676, still provides something with 14 steals and the occasional extra base hit.
Pittsburgh certainly has more margin for error on offense than Atlanta, but the Braves are readily able to do some damage themselves. In their last three games, they’ve put 22 runs on the board and have one of the game’s better hitters in Freddie Freeman (.886 OPS).
The rest of the lineup is flawed, but serviceable with Jace Peterson (.335 OBP) getting on base and Nick Markakis (.392 OBP) providing good at bats even if it is without much pop.
PROP TALK
With McCutchen seemingly healthy again, look out for him on Saturday. He has only nine career at bats against Teheran, but he hasn’t been fooled, collecting four hits, including a double and a home run.
Since May 6, his average has risen 105 points and his OPS over 300 points. He’s hit 11 doubles, a triple and five bombs in that time.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The depth in Pittsburgh and their ability to find a way to win over the last couple weeks gives this one to the Pirates.
Look for the Pirates to take advantage of Teheran not being himself and the offense to pick up their own struggling starter in Locke. The bullpen is also in Pittsburgh’s favor as the Braves’ pen has a MLB worst 4.81 ERA compared to a Pirates pen ranked third in the NL at 2.67.
Pittsburgh 7, Atlanta 4
The baseball betting odds for this game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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