The Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates are likely headed for a 1-game playoff in the NL wild card matchup next week, but the two top NL pennant contenders and division rivals have a score to settle first at Wrigley Field on Sunday night.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cubs are 47-30 at home and play their final game of the season at Wrigley Field in a make-up game Monday with Kansas City. On ESPN Sunday Night baseball against the Pirates, the Cubs fans will be rocking Wrigley. Chicago trails Pittsburgh in the race for home field in the 1-game playoff with the Cardinals holding a 4.0 game lead over the Pirates in the NL Central division.
But you’ll have to lay a big price over $2 with premier pitcher and Cy Young favorite Jake Arrieta on the mound. He’s allowed just one run over his last four home starts covering 30.2 innings.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jake Arrieta is battling the Dodgers Zach Greinke for the NL Cy Young award in a race for the ages. Arrieta has 20 wins with a 1.88 ERA. But a clear case for Arrieta is made in his value to the Cubs, as he’s 9-1 and the Cubs are 10-3 as a team when he's on the mound after a loss. He's been their skid stopper while anchoring several second-half winning streaks behind a historically low post-All-Star break ERA of 0.95.
A mid 90s fastball and high first-pitch strike and swing-and-miss rate have him dominating hitters with a .191 BAA. A hard sinker, cutter and plus curve complete his repertoire that’s resulted in a dominating profile of 220:48 K-to-BB ratio and .0.90 WHIP. His under the hood stats show an exceptional 57-to-16 ground ball/fly ball profile. Arrieta has held the Pirates to under a .200 BAA in his career and in his two outings at Pittsburgh since August, he held the Pirates to one earned run and eight hits over 15 innings as a near -130 favorite.
Veteran right-hander A.J. Burnett has had a solid season for the Pirates with nine wins and a steady 3.15 ERA. That’s the best ERA of his 17-year career. A 3.06 xERA and nearly equal ground ball/fly ball profile to Arrieta says he’s legit and pitching well.
He did allow eight hits and two runs to the Cubs on September 16 in Pittsburgh over 5.2 innings and struck out seven hitters. But that’s his best outing in his last seven starts and he won’t be asked to pitch past the sixth inning. The Pirates pen is one of the best in baseball with a 2.63 ERA, so they will have to tag team and keep the Cubs in check if they hope to steal the road win away from Arrieta.
KEY STATS
Over the last 14 days, the Pirates and Cubs lead the NL in runs scored with 78 and 69.
Cubs’ left-handed slugger Anthony Rizzo has hit 30 home runs including 24 against right-handed pitchers, but just one round tripper over his last 14 games.
Hot hitters over the last two weeks are the Cubs Kris Bryant, who’s hitting .357 with 12 RBI and Starlin Castro at .400 with 11 RBI and each have belted three home runs.
Neil Walker paces the Pirates with a .375 average and 12 RBI. Josh Harrison is hitting .409 while Starling Marte is hitting .359 with nine RBI.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Cubs took three of four at Pittsburgh a week and a half ago, but the Pirates are riding a 5-game road winning streak into Thursday’s action at Colorado. The Pirates are now without Jung-ho Kang for the rest of the season because of a knee and tibia injuries he sustained at second base. Andrew McCutchen is having another All-Star season, but Pedro Alvarez and Starlin Marte are also contributing immensely at the plate.
However, the Pirates have barely touched Arrieta in their last two shots at him. The lone concern for Arrieta is that he’s off a 123-pitch complete game shutout effort against Milwaukee in which he dominated again with 11 Ks and just 3 hits allowed. He’s passed the 200-innings pitched barrier for the first time in his career.
Still, it’s tough not to ride him in this Sunday night special even laying a big price with a run line wager another option.
Cubs 5, Pirates 3
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