Kicking off a three game weekend series with the standard Wrigley Field afternoon game, the Chicago Cubs ( 17-15, $12 ) look to hold on to the second spot in the NL Central as they host the surging Pittsburgh Pirates ( 17-16, -$139 ).
ODDS ANALYSIS
In seven games played this year, the Cubs hold the 4-3 edge, though going back to last season, the Pirates had the Cubs’ number, winning 14 of 19 games.
This is a different Cubs team this time around, though the Pirates have stayed relatively the same.
The Cubs now have a plethora of young stars in the making getting experience at the big league level. While the offensive numbers are still a bit below average, the team is continually improving and much better than in years past.
So far, Chicago has scored 137 runs, ranking them 18th out of 30 big league teams, but are likely to go up now that Kris Bryant has found his home run stroke.
After failing to hit one out in his first 20 games, Bryant has now homered in three of his last four, exhibiting the power that led to 43 minor league home runs last year and nine spring training long balls back in March.
While the Cubs offense seems to be improving, the Pirates are hopeful a pair of homers on Tuesday is a good sign for their offense as well. Both Josh Harrison and Andrew McCutchen hit homers on Tuesday and both were key parts of the offense in 2014, but have struggled in 2015. Even so, Pittsburgh has a better record than the Cubs even with their MVP caliber player not producing.
PITCHING MATCHUP
To kick off this important weekend set, the Cubs will send Kyle Hendricks to the mound.
Hendricks has yet to record a win this season in going 0-1 in his first six starts while posting a 4.65 ERA and 1.290 WHIP.
While his numbers are uninspiring, the 25-year old right-hander is coming off his best start of the season where he held the Milwaukee Brewers scoreless over five and a third.
On the other side of the field, Jeff Locke takes the bump for the Pirates after just his second quality start of the season. Overall, he is 2-2 with a 4.71 ERA though his FIP is nearly a run lower than his ERA, indicating a lack of luck for Locke.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After Tuesday’s game where Bryant hit his third home runs and fell a double short of the cycle, his manager, Joe Maddon had this to say:
“The home runs are beautiful, but how about the pick at third base? That was a great play.”
Bryant has been known for his bat with his glove being called into question, though not on Tuesday.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Outside of Bryant’s pop emerging, the Cubbies have a lot to be excited about from its young cornerstone players.
Anthony Rizzo, while one of the more experienced hitters on the team, is just 25 years old and has already grown into a leader. His 1.055 OPS and .330 average are amazing. Meanwhile, Jorge Soler has rebounded from a late-April slump and has hit in 10 of 12 games in May with a .341 average.
Meanwhile, Starling Marte has been leading the Pirates while McCutchen struggles to find his swing. The 26-year old already has eight home runs and a .839 OPS.
PROP TALK
Locke has not found much success against the Cubs with a 5.11 ERA and even less in Wrigley where he has a career 7.24 ERA in three games. Despite that, Rizzo is the only current Cubs player with a home run against him, going 4 for 15 with three of those four hits going for extra bases.
For the Pirates, Gregory Polanco is the player to watch. He is 3 for 6 lifetime against Hendricks.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Each of these team’s offenses are better than their numbers would indicate as the Cubs continue to grow with experience and players like McCutchen working out of their early season funk for the Pirates.
With that, this comes down to pitching. The Cubs have the edge in the rotation. Locke and Hendricks have similar numbers, but this is a ‘what have you done for me lately’ kind of sport and Hendricks’ last start was better.
Regardless, the Pirates pull ahead on the strength of their bullpen whose 2.94 ERA is nearly a run and a half better than the Cubs along with their defense. The Pirates aren’t the best defensive club, but Chicago is near the bottom of the league with 27 errors committed through 32 games.
Pittsburgh 6, Chicago 5
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