A.J. Burnett has been on fire this season, and he'll get a chance to get on the bump once again this Sunday when he leads his Pittsburgh Pirates (17-17 SU, -2.61 Units) into battle against the Chicago Cubs (18-15 SU, +1.12 Units).
ODDS ANALYSIS
The oddsmakers really haven't caught up to Burnett and his 1.60 ERA yet this season, and that might be worth taking advantage of on Sunday. The righty hasn't been larger than a -149 favorite on the moneyline, that start coming against the hapless Phillies on Tuesday.
Still, it should be noted that the Bucs only have three wins in his seven starts, and the favored team has won all seven of his trips to the bump.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Burnett though, has been awesome on the mound and has been a victim of virtually no run support. He has gotten seven runs in each of his last two outings, but in his first five starts, he had just a total of seven runs of help.
The righty hasn't allowed more than two runs in any start this year, and about the only reason to knock him is the fact that he has 13 walks in just 45 innings of work. Still, Burnett has always struggled with free passes in his career, so that shouldn't be considered anything new.
Jake Arrieta had a fantastic start on Tuesday night, allowing just one run over eight innings. He struck out 10 men, marking the fourth time this year he had at least seven strikeouts in a game.
Arrieta isn't supposed to be at the top of the Cubs' rotation, but a 3.00 ERA and 48 strikeouts already this season suggest that he could be in for a fantastic season.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"They're really starting to believe. When you win games late on a consistent basis, it becomes a part of the fabric, and it's really important to feel that way." – Cubs manager Joe Maddon on his team winning a lot of games in late innings and extra innings of late
SITUATIONAL BETTING
Mark Melancon has a 4.11 ERA to his cred this year, but he has pitched much better than that for the most part. Yes, he allowed three runs in a loss to the Cubs back on April 21, but since that point, he’s only allowed one run over nine innings of work.
Keep in mind that Melancon only got into trouble when he pitched on three consecutive days, so if he is off on either Friday or Saturday, he can clearly be trusted on Sunday.
PROP TALK
The Pirates are averaging striking out 8.1 times per game this season, a relatively modest number for sure. Arrieta is going to have an awfully high over/under in terms of his strikeout total, and we just don't think we can back him from that circumstance against a team which has done a lot right at the plate without striking out in crucial situations.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
We think there's going to be a lot of value here on Pittsburgh Sunday. Burnett is very likely going to be a dog of some sizeable value here on the road, and that's good enough for us.
Arrieta is due for a bit of regression, and we think after throwing 116 pitches on Tuesday, he'll struggle on regular rest come Sunday afternoon.
Pittsburgh 6, Chicago 3
The baseball betting odds for this Sunday game will first be available at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
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