The Mets are surging and have opened their lead in the NL East to three and a half games over the Nationals with a 62-52 record. Their total moneyline is now up to $975. The Pirates, on the other hand, are seven back in their division, but do have the better overall numbers at 65-46 and a $1,084 return.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Pirates had won four straight before back-to-back losses to the Cardinals severely damaged their chances for a run at the division.
Still, Pittsburgh has taken 39 of 61 since the start of June though just 26-28 on the road, the odds are in the Mets’ favor.
New York, after all, is 41-18 at home, have won three straight and 10 of their last 12 after finally putting together a serviceable offense.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Happy Harvey Day to Mets’ fans as Matt Harvey gets the nod on Sunday against the Pirates.
Harvey has had a few hiccups this year as you would expect from someone in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, but everything has been clicking of late.
Over his last 10 starts, Harvey has a 1.45 ERA that drops to a miniscule 0.40 over his last three outings.
On the year, Harvey is 11-7 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.993 WHIP in 148 innings, but at Citi Field he’s 7-2 with a 2.47 ERA.
Given his recent dominance, fatigue doesn’t appear to be an issue, but it may become one as he didn’t pitch at all in the big leagues last year and his innings count is currently just 30 shy of his career high.
Another thing to keep an eye on is the fact his worst outing of the season came against the Pirates who plated seven against him in four innings, though that was back in May.
Pittsburgh hasn’t announced their starter for the series finale, but it would be Jeff Locke’s spot in the rotation.
Locke is 6-7 with a 4.43 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in 124 innings. The southpaw had pitched well in June and July, but has struggled in two August starts, allowing eight runs in 10 2/3 innings.
He hasn’t faced the Mets this year, but in his career, he’s 0-1 with a 5.59 ERA in two starts.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After his last start where he threw eight shutout innings against the Rockies, Mets’ manager Terry Collins had this to say about Harvey:
“He’s starting to get back all the things we know he has, all the weapons, all the things that made him special. It just takes a little bit to get it going. But Matt’s got it going right now.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Mets’ offense is second to last in baseball with 3.68 runs scored per game this year, but the recent Mets have been a far better offensive team.
The addition of Yoenis Cespedes has been a big one, not just because he is a great player, but because his presence in the heart of the order takes pressure off other players and guys like Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy have been better since his acquisition.
The earlier additions of Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson also provide the team with depth and more quality bats.
Over the last 12 games, of which the Mets have won 10, New York has averaged 4.75 runs per game. Another key player in that improvement is catcher Travis d’Arnaud who has returned from injury.
While the Mets’ offense is surging, so is the Pirates’ who have scored 36 runs in their last six games.
Pittsburgh’s offense is led by Andrew McCutchen who has a .916 OPS, but the team’s depth is its strength, even without Jordy Mercer or Josh Harrison, Jung Ho Kang helps provide an answer at each position.
PROP TALK
Should he get the start, Ruben Tejada is 3-for-6 lifetime against Locke while Daniel Murphy is 2-for-6. On the other side, McCutchen and Pedro Alvarez each have a home run against Murphy. Alvarez is 3-for-5, also producing two doubles, while McCutchen is 2-for-4.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The pitching matchup alone gives the Mets the edge in this game, but their improved offense certainly helps as well. Having won 10 of 12 makes it hard to fade New York; even with the NL Wild card leaders in town.
New York 4, Pittsburgh 3
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets is scheduled for Sunday, April 16, 2015, at 1:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. The contest will be broadcast nationally on TBS.
