Believe it or not, the Pittsburgh Pirates (50-34 SU, +8.96 Units) could be just a half-game back of the St. Louis Cardinals (55-30 SU, +20.40 Units) in the NL Central going into the All-Star break if they can take care of business over the course of these next four days. Saturday's game marks the third game of this four-game set and will also be the Redbirds' 13th game played in the last 12 days.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Whatever A.J. Burnett is doing at this point in his career, he needs to keep doing it. All of his stats suggest that he should just breeze in this game.
The righty is 7-3 with a 1.99 ERA. His splits at home are even better with a 1.28 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, and that comes with batters hitting a somewhat modest .243 against him.
Versus the Cards in his career, Burnett has posted a 9-6 record with a 3.68 ERA, which is about as well as anyone could expect against a team which has been this good for this long.
Burnett really hasn't been pathetically lucky either. His BABIP is .316, which is actually a tad higher than average. Sure, his home run to fly ball rate should be higher than 3.8 percent, and his HR/9 should be higher than 0.24, but those numbers are a testament to the fact that he has been keeping the ball down better than anyone else in the game.
John Lackey though, has five straight quality starts under his belt, allowing no more than two runs in any of the five starts and lasting at least seven innings in all five.
You know that you're going to get solid innings out of Lackey, which is crucial for live bettors. He has allowed more than one run in an inning just twice in his last 57 innings of work, and both of those were at Coors Field, a park which has claimed many good pitchers in the past.
ADVANCED STATS
Of course, it isn't just Lackey who is doing a nice job shutting down opponents and staying out of big innings. Most of the St. Louis pitchers are doing the same thing. It isn't an accident that this club ranks No. 1 in the majors in team ERA (2.65) and in quality starts (57 in 85 games).
That defense behind those pitchers is phenomenal. Yes, it's not even a given that the Cardinals have the best defense in Missouri, but if you take out the Royals, there probably isn't a team in baseball which is all that close defensively to St. Louis.
The Cards do commit their fair share of errors, but those 49 errors on the season aren't nearly indicative of just how good they are defensively. Their defensive WAR rating is 34.2, which almost three win shares higher than Kansas City in second.
TALKING BULLPENS
The Pirates have one of the best closers in the game to bet on in Mark Melancon, but that doesn't mean that the rest of the bullpen is chopped liver either.
Tony Watson and Jared Hughes have been called upon in 40 and 42 games respectively this season, and they have earned a lot of innings with ease. Watson, in particular has been great with 40 strikeouts in 40 innings against just eight walks, and he can surely be trusted as well.
Time and time again we've seen Watson and Hughes throw the seventh and eighth innings and Melancon shut the door. It's a big ask to get a team from the seventh through the ninth against this St. Louis team without giving up a run, but the Pirates are certainly capable, and live bettors should be aware of that.
The MLB lines for this Saturday contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker's live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Need to fund your account before the big game but don't have your computer? No problem! BookMaker Sportsbook now offers a mobile betting cashier so you can deposit money directly from your smartphone. Don't miss out on getting paid because you couldn't bet. Click here, and deposit at BookMaker now! The ballgame pitting the St. Louis Cardinals versus the Pittsburgh Pirates will commence Saturday, July 11, 2015 at 7:15 p.m. ET at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA. You can watch the contest live on FOX.
