ODDS ANALYSIS
The Brewers won four straight games for the first time this season with Wednesday’s 9-5 win at Philadelphia. Sure, three of those wins came against the Phils, but a wins a win. The Brewers could be trending up after their first non-losing month since June 2014.
They concluded this June winning six of eight to finish at 14-14. Milwaukee’s road swing continues in Cincinnati where the Brewers have a tough time getting wins, totaling just six victories in their last 23 games. Milwaukee dropped two of three at Great American Ball Park when the teams met there in April and is just 2-5 down 3.08 units against the Reds this season.
The Reds continue their homestand after taking two of three from Minnesota and have been good in their own yard this season. They enter the weekend having won nine of their previous 11 games at home, in the black 6.5 units on the moneyline, and 22-15 overall, up 4.92 units. The Reds cashed the over in two of three games against Minnesota and the over is 20-14-3 in 37 games at Great American Ball Park.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jimmy Nelson (5-8, 4.48 ERA) didn’t have his best stuff Monday, yielding four runs on six hits in five innings, but still walked away with a win over the Phillies. It’s been an inconsistent season for the righty who still hasn’t delivered consecutive quality starts.
Nelson had varied success against the Reds in consecutive starts against them in late April. He allowed one run on three hits in eight innings of a no-decision and was pounded for seven runs on six hits with five walks in a road loss his next turn. He has yet to beat the Reds going 0-3 with a 4.50 ERA in six career appearances – four starts.
Josh Smith (0-1, 5.63 ERA) will make his third career start still looking for his first win. He showed improvement last time out, giving up three runs – one earned – in five innings against the Mets. He gave up four hits and four walks while striking out three and was done in by opposing pitcher Steven Matz, who’s two-run double was the critical blow.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We’ve been doing everything a little better. We’ve been getting big hits in the key moment of the ballgame. And the starting pitchers, when they don’t go far, the bullpen comes in and has been unbelievable.” – Brewers’ Carlos Gomez Wednesday, after the team’s seventh win in nine games
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Brewers still have not played a month of winning baseball since June 2014, when an 18-10 month propelled them into July with 51 victories, tied for the most in MLB. Their slide since then has been well documented, but a wild 4-3 win over Philadelphia on Tuesday offered some hope. By winning six of their final eight games this June, the Brewers finished the month at 14-14, snapping a string of five consecutive losing months. The team ERA for the month was 3.80 while their .693 OPS ranked 18th of 30 teams. Overall Milwaukee is 27th in ERA and 26th in OPS. “We’ve played some good games. It’s starting pitching,” manager Craig Counsell said. “You get good pitching, we put ourselves in the game. That’s a good formula with our bullpen.”
PROP TALK
It’s been a struggle all season for Billy Hamilton, even getting benched for a time due to lack of production. But he’s finally starting to climb out of the hole he put himself in after hitting .217 over the first month of the season. He had a productive series against the Twins batting .455, scored five times and swiped four bags. He walked three times during the series, matching his total of base on balls from his past 17 games. When he gets on base, the Reds offense becomes a better unit with his ability to run – he leads the majors with 40 steals – and their run production increases. He hasn’t done much against the Brewers this year, then again, he hadn’t done much against anyone.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Reds are seven games over .500 at home, an excellent record for a team at 36-41 entering the weekend. Cincy has beaten up on the Brewers in Great American Ball Park recently, winning 17 of the last 23 played there while the Brewers run of success is tarnished a bit with three wins over the lowly Phillies. Reds starter Josh Smith is in line for a permanent spot in the rotation as the Reds are sure to deal Johnny Cueto by the deadline. He needs to assure the organization that he’s ready to take on the responsibility.
Cincinnati 6, Milwaukee 4
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Milwaukee Brewers versus the Cincinnati Reds will commence Saturday, July 4, 2015, at 7:15 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park. The matchup will be televised regionally on FOX.
