ODDS ANALYSIS
After struggling against the Reds last season – and just about every team in the National League – the Cubs have made a statement against their Central Division rivals, beating them for the fifth time in six games this season, 6-3, on Thursday in the series opener. Chicago has taken three of four at Wrigley Field up 1.57 units while holding the Reds to an average of just three runs a game.
Cincinnati’s four-game win streak came to an end Thursday and their road woes continue as they lost for the 10 time in their last 11 away games. The Reds are dreadful on the road at 10-19 in the red 9.31 units. The Cubs lost the last four games started by Jon Lester scoring seven runs in that time but are 2-0 in his starts against the Reds scoring seven runs in each game
PITCHING MATCHUP
Anthony DeSclafani (5-4, 3.53 ERA) pitched around 10 hits to give up just two runs in 6.1 innings getting the win Tuesday over the Phillies. He’s been the Reds’ most effective starter behind Johnny Cueto but his 3.5 walks per nine innings are high and that needs to come down before he improves.
DeSclafani is 1-1 in two starts against the Cubs this season. The rookie right-hander has given up five runs and seven hits in 12 innings, but only one of those runs was earned. Both starts came in April.
Jon Lester (4-5, 4.25 ERA) got beat up for the second straight start yielding five runs in 4.1 innings and taking the loss Tuesday at Detroit. He allowed nine hits and two walks in his shortest outing since Opening Day and hasn’t come close to being the ace the Cubs expected and are paying for.
Lester gave up 10 hits and six runs in six innings taking a ND in his first-ever start against Cincinnati on Apr. 14. Two starts later he got a win over the Reds tossing six frames with five hits and three runs and a season-high 10 strikeouts.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“It’s not good. I’m not getting deep into games. Regardless of runs, hits, errors, walks, strikeouts, whatever, I’ve got to do a better job pitching innings. That’s what it comes down to.” - Cubs starter Jon Lester, after giving up 11 runs on 18 hits over 9.1 innings of his last two starts.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
It’s time to put a tent over the Cubs bullpen because it’s becoming a circus out there. Chicago this week signed free agent Rafael Soriano to a minor league contract in a deal that will eventually make an already cloudy picture hazier. Apparently Hector Rondon is still the closer, but he was yanked from a game after facing one batter last Saturday. Pedro Strop, the setup man for most of the year, got the save in that game. Then Jason Motte saved Sunday’s game, his first since leading the NL with 42 in 2012. Now comes Soriano, who has 207 career saves and was manager Joe Maddon’s closer in Tampa Bay during the 2010 season. He’s still a few weeks away so there is time for clarity in the pen, but a rumor that the Cubs are interested in Philadelphia’s Jonathan Papelbon surfaced recently to muddy things up again. Cubs’ relievers entered the weekend series with a 12-10 record, 3.59 ERA and were 14 of 22 in save chances.
PROP TALK
With all the offensive talent on the Cubs roster they’ve been a disappointment this season. One player who hasn’t disappointed is Anthony Rizzo, who has blossomed into a top first baseman in the Majors. He had a stretch of four straight multi-hit games snapped Tuesday at Detroit but picked up right where he left off the following day with a pair of hits. Rizzo is just a good player who makes himself better and at the age of 26 is a great leader for this young group. He is hitless in eight at-bats against DeSclafani and that means he’s due.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The loss of Reds shortstop Zack Cozart for the season further decimates an already banged up squad in both the long and short term. Devin Mesoraco and Marlon Byrd are both on the disabled list while Brandon Phillips and Billy Hamilton have missed games and are day to day with injuries. That’s good news for Cubs starter Jon Lester, who’s had problems with the Reds in two earlier meetings. It’s time for Lester to put the excuse of never pitching in the NL behind him and live up to his contract. Their Cubs are paying him to be the ace and he finally steps up.
Chicago 7, Cincinnati 3
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