ODDS ANALYSIS
The Twins aren’t going away in the AL Central race and the Royals are making sure they hang around. The Twins are just 5-7 in their last 12 games but they closed the gap in the division winning the first game of the weekend series with a 2-0 shutout on Thursday.
Minnesota improved to 4-6 against KC this season and won for the second time against them in the last seven games. An improved road record could help the Twins in their fight for first place. Minnesota is just 3-6 in its last nine roadies and 17-22 overall this season. The Twins are a profitable bet this season, in the black 12.74 units on the moneyline.
KC’s showdown with the AL West leading Astros didn’t go too well, giving a rough finish to an otherwise successful nine-game road trip. The Royals won five of the first six games on the trip before being outclassed in a sweep at Houston. KC scored six times in the three games and their offensive woes carried over to Thursday’s series opener, getting shutout for the second time in three games while dropping a season-high fourth straight. The Royals have chilled at home going 5-7 in their last 12 at Kauffman Stadium with the under at 7-4-1 in those games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Mike Pelfrey (5-5, 3.81 ERA) is coming off his worst start of the year, as he gave up eight runs over two-plus innings against the Reds on Monday. He allowed nine hits while walking three and it was the third time in his last four starts that he’s surrendered at least nine hits. Needless to say he’s struggled in those outings with an 8.95 ERA.
Pelfrey was masterful allowing just five hits over seven shutout innings in a 3-0 win over the Royals on Apr. 22 in his only start against them this season. It was his first win in four career starts against KC, lowering his ERA to 6.05.
Joe Blanton (2-1, 3.14 ERA) came down to earth a bit in his third start since joining the rotation, allowing five runs and four walks in 2.2 innings at Houston on Monday. He pitched well in his first two starts but labored with his command and walked four Astros while throwing just 39 of his 74 pitches for strikes.
Blanton is 5-6 with a 4.50 ERA over 11 career starts against the Twins, but hasn’t faced them since July 22, 2013 as a member of the Los Angeles Angels.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“I think if I were younger it would drag on with me a little longer. But I think now, I look at it different. I understand that falling behind into bad counts and leaving balls over the middle isn’t a good recipe. I just need to eliminate that and be better next time out. I think it’s easier to turn the page than maybe four to six years ago.” – Twins pitcher Mike Pelfrey after giving up eight runs in two-plus innings in his last start
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Twins have perhaps the best closer nobody outside of Minnesota has heard of. Glenn Perkins converted his MLB-best 26th save in Thursday’s win and is the only closer with at least 20 saves to be perfect in save opportunities. He tossed a perfect 11-pitch ninth inning to preserve the shutout and moved within two of tying bullpen coach Eddie Guardado for third-most in franchise history. With just five walks and 26 hits allowed in 33.1 innings, Perkins has a stellar 0.93 WHIP and 1.35 ERA. Perkins has saved all four of Minnesota’s wins against the Royals this season, giving up three hits and a run in five innings. Manager Paul Molitor won’t be afraid to use him given the importance of this series and the low-pitch count in Thursday’s opener.
PROP TALK
The Royals could use a spark and the return of Eric Hosmer to the lineup might be just what they need. Hosmer missed the three-game set in Houston with a sprained finger on his right hand, and although still dealing with some discomfort, he’s well enough to swing the bat. He had a single and a walk in the series opener as he improves his timing at the plate. Hosmer is hitting .291 on the year with eight homers and is a .326 hitter with six homers at home. He has three hits in eight career at-bats against Pelfrey.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
As expected over the course of a 162-game schedule compressed into 182 days, players get injured. Every team has to deal with it. Who gets hurt and how badly many times determines the fate of a club in a given season. The Royals have been dealing injuries, but got first baseman Eric Hosmer back in the lineup to help their slumbering offense. Starter Joe Blanton, who retired and didn’t throw a pitch last year, has been a nice surprise and gets a shot at taming the Twins, who need a better effort from Mike Pelfrey if they want to inch closer to the Royals in the standings. Blanton has recouped the fire that made him a reliable starter with the A’s and does enough to turn the game over to a dominant bullpen.
Kansas City 5, Minnesota 3
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