ODDS ANALYSIS
The Brewers are ecstatic about leaving Miller Park. Milwaukee dropped both games of their interleague series with the Royals there, losing 7-2 on Tuesday for their fourth straight home loss and 11th in the last 14 games.
The Brewers actually had a winning trip the last time they hit the road, going 5-4 with stops in St. Louis, Minnesota and Pittsburgh, finishing up 2.15 units. Overall the Brewers are 13-18 on the road in the red 1.76 units.
After taking the first two games of the home-and-home series with the Brewers, the Royals have seemingly overcome their recent 2-9 skid that saw them briefly fall out of first place in the AL Central. KC won for the sixth time in eight games with Tuesday’s win, a streak that included a sweep at Minnesota to regain the top spot in the division. The Royals have been real good at home going 19-11 overall in the black 5.48 units. They are also one of the most profitable teams in baseball up 9.42 units through their first 61 contests.
PITCHING MATCHUP
One start after tossing six shutout innings in a win at Pittsburgh, Milwaukee’s Jimmy Nelson (3-7, 4.60 ERA) was tagged for 10 hits and seven runs over five innings in a loss to the Nationals. Inconsistency is defining his first full season in the Majors. “It is just unacceptable. I just have to be more consistent,” he said.
Nelson will face the Royals for the first time in his 27th career start.
Jeremy Guthrie (4-4, 5.79 ERA) also allowed 10 hits over five innings in his last start but surrendered just three runs in a losing effort at St. Louis on Saturday. He’s pitched better since his 11-run Yankees outing, posting a 3.18 ERA over his last three starts but hasn’t pitched more than 6.1 innings.
In his 287 career games Guthrie has faced the Brewers just one time, tossing seven innings of three-hit, one-run ball to get a victory on Apr. 22, 2012.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“It is just unacceptable. I just have to be more consistent. I have to be better. Not just next time out, but every one of my outings. That’s the frustrating part to me right now. I’m working hard to get that consistency, but the last couple of weeks it has been up and down. That’s the most frustrating thing right now. I’m just going to keep working.” – Brewers pitcher Jimmy Nelson
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Royals may see a good portion of their lineup at this season’s All-Star Game, although those bats were silent over the weekend. But facing the Brewers has seemingly ignited the spark and the Royals will look to continue the momentum. Kansas City has eight players currently leading the AL All-Star voting and ranks in MLB’s upper half with 4.3 runs per game and a .267 average. The Royals, however, managed only two runs and 10 hits in a two-game sweep at St. Louis on Friday and Saturday. The effort quickly improved with three first-inning runs in an 8-5 win over the Brewers on Monday and KC jumped in front 2-0 after the first half inning in Tuesday’s 7-2 win. KC scored 15 runs on 30 hits while batting .375 in the first two games of the four-game series.
PROP TALK
Baseball is all about averages and they say Royals designated hitter Kendrys Morales is about to get a few hits. Morales is hitless in his last five games covering 11 at-bats and it’s hard to be a .280 hitter going through those stretches. Morales had some down time in the two games at Milwaukee with no DH hitting and, although he pinch-hit twice, he will benefit from the down time. He continues to lead the team in RBIs despite not collecting one in his last six games, but the Royals are hitting and Morales will be inserted back into the middle of the order against Jimmy Nelson, who’s allowed 28 hits in his last 22 innings pitched.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
It appears as though the Royals are back to playing the type of baseball that got them off to the best start in franchise history. A recent 11-game stretch where they won just twice seems to be in the past and the Royals are playing at home where they have excelled. Starter Jeremy Guthrie has been beat up a bit this season so the Royals will have to handle Brewers’ starter Jimmy Nelson, which shouldn’t be much of a problem since the rest of the league has. Milwaukee is the antidote for failure and the Royals take it.
Kansas City 6, Milwaukee 4
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