ODDS ANALYSIS
Winners in 10 of their last 13 games the New York Yankees enter the series with their bitter rival one game up in the AL East standings.
Both teams are relevant again in the division and with Alex Rodriguez one home run shy of tying Willie Mays for fourth place on the all-time list there will be plenty of excitement surrounding this three-game set.
After dropping four of their first five games this season the Yanks have picked it up and are 14-8 on the runline up 8.59 units while working the moneyline to 3.60 units in the black. A good over bet with a record of 13-8-1, the Yanks cashed the under in each of their last three games but the over was 3-0 in the earlier series with these clubs. Also, note that the Yankees have lost the last seven games Sabathia started.
The Red Sox score better than five runs a game and have the worst pitching staff in baseball with an ERA of 5.04. That adds up to plenty of runs and plenty of over play at the betting window. The Sox have cashed the over a MLB-high 15 times in 22 games and their 4-1 win over Toronto on Wednesday stopped a string of five straight over plays. The Sox scored 18 runs taking two of three from the Yanks from Apr. 10-12 cashing the over in all three games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
CC Sabathia (0-4, 5.96 ERA) was tagged for seven earned runs on nine hits in five innings Saturday in the Yankees’ loss to the Mets. He’s winless through four starts this season and hasn’t registered a victory since Aril 24, 2014 going 0-6 with a 6.13 ERA over his last seven starts – the longest winless stretch of his career.
Sabathia’s last victory came at Fenway Park on Apr. 24, 2014 when he gave up two runs and three hits over six innings in a 14-5 win. However, he had been 2-2 with an 8.58 ERA over his previous five starts there and is 5-6 with a 6.44 ERA in his last 13 overall against the Sox.
Justin Masterson (2-0, 5.16 ERA) held the high-powered Orioles offense to three runs over seven innings in a no-decision Saturday for his second quality start in four outings. He has shown better command this year after struggling to find the strike zone in 2014.
Masterson has allowed 12 runs and 15 hits over 8.1 innings while dropping his last two starts to the Yankees. In 13 career games – nine starts – against NY he’s 4-5 with a 3.94 ERA and a shutout in 59.1 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“If you were to look at his four starts, I think three of them he’s thrown the ball pretty good. Saturday he made mistakes. He was up in the zone. So I’m going to bet on the guy in the three other starts.” – Yankees manager Joe Girardi on CC Sabathia
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
There is a good chance we will see plenty of runs and they’ll be scored early with two starters who have been far from dominant this year. CC Sabathia has had his struggles this season and Fenway Park isn’t the place to get those issues worked out. Sabathia allowed three homers to the Mets last time out and faces a more powerful lineup Friday. He may well turn things around this season but at age 34 and coming off a knee injury that limited him to eight starts last season, his best days are likely behind him.
PROP TALK
Welcome back to Boston Hanley Ramirez. The Sox converted outfielder who began his career in Beantown back in 2005 returned to the American League after nine seasons in the senior circuit with the Marlins and Dodgers and apparently enjoys life in the AL. Ramirez slugged his 10th home run of the season Wednesday tying the club record for most homers before May 1 and tied Nelson Cruz for the MLB lead. Ramirez has hit safely in seven of his past nine games collecting 12 hits with five home runs in that span. He had four hits in 12 at-bats against the Yanks earlier this season playing in two of three games but didn’t face CC Sabathia.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Two teams that hit the long ball and score runs and both with suspect pitching staffs adds up to a lot of runs and excitement – a typical Yankees-Red Sox series and everybody’s in for a treat. After a scary start that had many wondering if the Yankees were a threat they turned it up and climbed out of the basement and into first place a month into the season. The loss of Masahiro Tanaka hurts an already fragile pitching staff and the struggles of CC Sabathia have us wondering if his best days are behind him. The Yanks are good but you can only outslug opponents for so long until it catches up to you.
The Sox are in a similar spot with all kinds of question marks surrounding their staff. Starters have been inconsistent and mostly bad creating rumors as to whom – Cole Hamels – will be acquired to help out. Hanley Ramirez tied a club record with his 10th home run before May 1 and is near his entire total from last season. Until or if the pitching staff gets squared away the Sox will also need to outslug their opponent and they are better equipped to handle those types of games than the Yankees are. The Sox will get to Sabathia, who isn’t the same, dominant pitcher we’ve seen in the past, and take round one of this matchup.
Boston 8, New York 5
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