With the Chicago Cubs sitting at 58-47 and currently holding a half game lead over the 58-48 San Francisco Giants for the second wildcard spot in the National League, the two teams get set for an important four game weekend series with the second game slated for Friday afternoon.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Overall, both teams have helped bettors come out on top with the Cubs total moneyline at $228 and the Giants’ at $392.
San Francisco’s dropped four of their last seven games which is a bad sign for a team whose entire season’s been made up of runs, both positive and negative.
Prior to those last seven games, the Giants had won 12 of their last 13 games. If you’re going to put your money on San Fran in this series, you need to hope their 8-3 win over the Braves on Tuesday was a sign they’ll be able to avoid the tailspin that’s plagued them all year.
On the other side, the Cubs have won six straight games and are playing really inspired baseball with their pitching leading the way as they’ve allowed three or fewer runs in each of those six games.
On the year, Chicago is actually a better team on the road, but is still 27-24 at home while the Giants are 28-25 on the road.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Jon Lester will take the hill on Friday against the Giants’ newest starting pitcher, Mike Leake.
Lester’s had a very interesting season so far. He’s 6-8 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.168 WHIP over his 132 2/3 innings of work. Overall, aside from the wins and losses, those numbers are very good, but Lester’s season’s included several ups and downs.
The months of April and June were terrible for Lester with a 6.23 and 5.74 ERA respectively, but May and July were amazing with an ERA of 1.76 and 1.66. Lester and the Cubs are hopeful that another flip of the calendar won’t cause another dramatic change in his on field performance.
For Leake, Friday will be his second start in a Giants’ uniform after being traded from Cincinnati at the deadline.
The 27-year old right-hander is a combined 9-6 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.168 WHIP in 143 innings. In his last start, he got the loss, but went six and a third innings, allowing just two runs though he did allow eight hits and walked two more.
Since the start of July, Leake’s been absolutely filthy with a 1.49 ERA and in four starts against the Cubs this year, Leake is 1-0 with a 3.67 ERA and 0.815 WHIP, striking out 20 in 27 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Offense has been an issue for the Cubs this season, but on Tuesday night, they collected 14-hits. Manager Joe Maddon was asked about the hits, but deflected, instead saying:
“We scattered a lot of hits out there, but it’s all about the starting pitcher.”
That night, Arrieta had a great outing, but given both Lester’s and Leake’s past month of starts, Friday night should be all about the starting pitching, too.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
On the offensive side of things, Giants All-Star second baseman Joe Panik is on the disabled list and given his .309 average and .816 OPS, that’s a big loss. Still the team includes a number of other players providing above average production. All in all, the team is built on solid production up and down the order.
Even with Panik out, the Giants have the offensive edge over the Cubs, having scored 61 more runs this season as the Cubs’ offense—despite talented youngsters—has a number of holes.
Right now, the Cubs have young Kyle Schwarber adding a bit of thump to the order, but third baseman Kris Bryant is slumping. Since the break, the Rookie of the Year candidate is hitting just .141. He does have a pair of home runs, but has also struck out 27 times in 18 games.
To make matters worse for the Cubs, Starlin Castro is continuing to see playing time at short despite looking completely lost both at the plate and in the field.
PROP TALK
Given Leake spent much of his career in the NL Central before the trade, he’s faced the Cubs quite frequently. As such, we have a lot of head-to-head numbers to go on for prop bets in this one. For instance, Starlin Castro leads the team in at bats with 51 and also has the most RBIs with eight.
While Castro’s individual numbers are solid, his struggles this year preclude him from being a strong prop bet.
Instead, look to Anthony Rizzo who is 10 for 30 with two home runs and five RBIs or to Chris Coghlan. In the veteran’s 16 at bats against Leake, he has 10 hits for a .625 average. He also has two home runs, tying Rizzo for the most of any Cub against Leake.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Cubs’ offense came to life a bit on Tuesday, but overall, Bryant is struggling and the team’s not shown itself to be an offensive juggernaut this season. San Francisco has the edge at the plate.
With both Leake and Lester pitching lights out of late, the two teams are about even on the mound—at least to start the game—and their bullpen ERAs are separated by just two-hundredths of a run.
Given how close these teams are, take the offense of the Giants to allow them to squeeze out an extra run in a close game.
San Francisco 4, Chicago 3
BookMaker will be the first online sportsbook to send out the baseball odds for this marquee matchup. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break.
Need to fund your account before the big game but don’t have your computer? No problem, BookMaker Sportsbook now offers a mobile betting cashier so you can deposit money directly from your smartphone. Don’t miss out on getting paid because you couldn’t bet, click here and deposit at BookMaker now! The ballgame between the San Francisco Giants and Chicago Cubs will take place Friday, August 7, 2015, at 4:05 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The game will be televised live on WGN.
