The Oakland Athletics (35-44, -$1,721) are at the bottom of the pack in the AL West, but are just a half game back of the Seattle Mariners (34-42, -$1,326) and will look to surpass them when the teams meet up for a four game series this weekend, beginning with Thursday’s showdown.
ODDS ANALYSIS
A three game sweep at the hands of the Kansas City Royals this weekend aside, the Athletics have been playing improved baseball of late, winning 10 of their last 15 games and slowly getting themselves back towards respectability.
Overall, the A’s have been far better than their record would indicate. While it is all about wins and losses, Oakland has been quite unlucky this year. They’ve scored 40 runs more than they’ve allowed and, based on that, should be sitting several games above .500, but instead, find themselves nine games under.
They’ve really struggled in one-run games, going just 6-19. They’re also winless in six extra-inning games.
On the other side, the Mariners have been as bad as their record indicates, or at least their offense has.
Seattle has scored just 255 runs this year, a full 51 fewer than they’ve given up. In actuality, according to their Pythagorean record, they have actually won a couple more games than they should have won.
Head to head, despite the offense, the Mariners have the edge, winning five of six so far this season and 10 of 19 last year.
PITCHING MATCHUP
The pitching should hold the edge in this game as both teams send southpaws to the mound and neither offense has fared well against lefties this year. The Mariners are just 7-9 against southpaws while the A’s are 4-14.
While those records would give the edge to the Mariners, the A’s have the better arm going in the form of Scott Kazmir.
The veteran hurler is just 4-5 this year, but has a 2.79 ERA and 1.196 WHIP in 90 1/3 innings.
The 31-year old has improved greatly over the last three years following a brief hiatus from the majors. This year, he’s been one of the league’s more consistent arms, having given up more than three runs in a game just once in 15 starts.
Kazmir hasn’t faced the Mariners this year, but in his career, is 4-4 with a 3.35 ERA and 1.102 WHIP through 13 starts.
Looking to match Kazmir pitch for pitch will be fellow lefty Roenis Elias.
The 26-year old has filled in admirably in an injury plagued rotation and is 4-5 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in 72 innings spanning 12 starts.
Of late, Elias has struggled, failing to make it out of the fourth inning in two of his last three starts, allowing a combined 14 earned runs in those two games.
QUOTE TO NOTE
In his last outing, Elias pitched well the first time through the order, but lost it in the fourth, giving up seven runs in the inning. When asked about what went wrong, manager Lloyd McClendon summed it up, saying:
“Well, he lost command. He lost command of the fastball and breaking ball. Most of the fastballs he threw were elevated, middle of the plate.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The A’s have literally scored 100 more runs this year than the Mariners who sit dead last in all of baseball with just 255 runs scored.
The Mariners are averaging just 3.36 runs per game even with Nelson Cruz hitting .305 with a .920 OPS and 19 home runs.
While Cruz singlehandedly carried this team through the first couple months, even he has struggled here in his last 30 games, hitting just .236 with just one home run and a .635 OPS. Add in a .660 OPS from Kyle Seager and a .582 from Cano over the last 30 games and nobody is providing much of late outside of Austin Jackson (.773 OPS in last 24 games) and Dustin Ackley (.381 OBP over last 22 games).
Overall, this team is missing the productive bats of Cruz and Seager (.760 OPS and 12 HRs) and are really being hurt by Robinson Cano’s abysmal season where he’s actually one of the team’s worst offensive players with a .629 OPS. Of course that is still better than Mike Zunino behind the plate (.542 OPS) and Mark Trumbo (.390 OPS) who has been flat out awful in his 20 games since being acquired from Arizona.
While the Mariners struggle to score, the A’s rank third in all of baseball in runs and are able to manufacture runs despite launching just 68 home runs.
Catcher Stephen Vogt has come up huge this year with a .300 average, 13 home runs and a .925 OPS in the 30-year old’s first season as an everyday player.
Speedster Billy Burns has also been a pleasant surprise with a .364 OBP and 15 steals while Josh Reddick (.809 OPS) and Ben Zobrist (.797 OPS) have both been effective at the plate and in the field.
PROP TALK
Kazmir is an interesting matchup for Cano. The struggling second baseman is just 9 for 29 life time against him, but has three home runs. Of course, he also has 13 strike outs.
Another player with a reasonable sample size against Kazmir is Cruz who is 6 for 23 with three doubles. Of the active players, they’re the only two with any real success—or for that matter many at bats—against the southpaw.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The A’s are starting to trend in the right direction. The team still has concerns in the bullpen and defensively, but their offense gives them the edge over the woeful Mariners and Kazmir holds the edge over Elias.
Since Seattle has dropped five of seven while the A’s have won 10 of 15, I am going with those trends continuing and backing Oakland over the Mariners.
Oakland 6, Seattle 2
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