The Atlanta Braves (10-12, -0.50 Units) enter Friday having lost eight of their last 10 games. They'll hope to end that skid on Saturday against the Cincinnati Reds (11-11, +0.28 Units).
ODDS ANALYSIS
On this nosedive for Atlanta, the team has dropped 6.17 units, erasing all of the good work that it did for bettors at the outset of the year. This will be yet another one of these games which is really close to a pick 'em, and it will likely mark the ninth straight Braves game in which the favored team has been -130 or less.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Eric Stults is going to try to stop the bleeding for an Atlanta pitching staff which has been battered and bruised in recent days. The lefty isn't a stud by any stretch of the imagination, but he is consistent, and that's all that the Braves could be looking for right now.
Stults hasn't pitched longer than 6.1 innings this year, but he hasn't given up more than four runs in a start.
Jason Marquis started his career with the Braves a decade and a half ago, and it really looked like he was at the end of his rope before his last start. Prior to that, the righty had allowed 13 runs in 15 innings to start his season. He did toss eight great innings against Milwaukee last weekend though, allowing just two runs, and in the process, he proved that he still has a few good outings left in that right arm of his.
QUOTE TO NOTE
"Keep 'em coming. I hope all five starters can get them, too. I'll take them when they come. You've got to take advantage of those games and don't let the other team creep down into the game." – Reds pitcher Jason Marquis on his run support, which has reached 30 runs in his four starts this year
SITUATIONAL BETTING
Relief pitching for the Reds has been a nightmare this year. The bullpen has a 5.91 ERA and a collective WHIP of 1.47. Getting the ball to Aroldis Chapman has been a chore, though it should be noted that when he has been in games, Chapman has been lights out, allowing just five hits and three walks in 10.2 scoreless innings pitched this season.
PROP TALK
The Reds have been mashing the ball this year. They have hit at least one home run as a team in seven straight games, and they are averaging 1.41 homers per game, the second-highest mark in baseball. However, they are averaging 1.2 homers per nine innings against right-handed pitching this season and just 0.2 home runs per nine frames against lefties, so this matchup against Stults could prove to be problematic.
ANALYSIS & PREDICTION
Still, we have a lot more confidence that Cincinnati will figure out how to hit left-handed pitching before Atlanta figures out how to get guys out.
The Braves have conceded 31 runs in their last three games and 29 runs in their last 23 innings, stats which ruin your entire team's ERA in a hurry. Cincinnati is the type of team which can put runs on the board in a hurry and in bunches, the same types of bunches which Atlanta is so prone to conceding.
Though we aren't much for backing Marquis in this spot on the road, we still think he makes for the better bet of the two clubs. If we had our druthers though, we would rather bet on the over, as we don't see either of these teams failing to score at least five runs in this matchup.
Cincinnati 7, Atlanta 5
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