After getting shutout in Game 1, the Cubs offense has come out the last two games.
It’ll be up to John Lackey to repeat his Game 1 performance to help the Cardinals push this series back to St. Louis.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Game 3 is a monumental game in a best of five series and the winner, generally takes the series. For St. Louis, this Game 4 is even bigger!
The Cardinals have their backs against the wall. In the regular season every time they faced adversity they came through.
PITCHING MATCHUP
With the series on the line, the Cardinals will return the ball to their Game 1 starter on Tuesday hoping that John Lackey can repeat his success.
Lackey held the Cubs scoreless over seven and a third innings as the Cardinals won Game 1. The 36-year old right-hander is pitching as well as he ever has and allowed Chicago just two hits and a walk over those seven and a third innings.
This time around, however, Lackey will be on the road. During the regular season, Lackey pitched to a 9-4 record and 1.93 ERA at home, but a 4-6 record and much less impressive 3.82 ERA on the road.
Looking to close out this series at home, the Cubs will look for Jason Hammel to close out the series.
The veteran right-hander was 10-7 with a 3.74 ERA and 1.160 WHIP in the regular season, but he struggled in the second half with a 5.10 ERA and 1.493 WHIP in 67 innings. He struggled to go deep in games though he did maintain a 9.0 strikeout to walk ratio after the break.
Against the Cardinals this season, Hammel also struggled with a 5.73 ERA, allowing seven runs in 11 innings of work. Interestingly, he also has an ERA half a run higher at home than on the road.
QUOTE TO NOTE
After Game 1, Lackey spoke about how he handled the Cubs, saying:
“They’re an aggressive team, and I knew they would be swinging. I don’t’ have a whole lot of tricks for them…so you just got to try and locate and try to execute.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
It’s the year of the rookie, both in Chicago and all over baseball. Kris Bryant’s fifth inning home run in Game 3 was the tenth hit of the postseason by a rookie and that’s already a record and we’re not even through the division series.
As a team, Chicago slammed four home runs on Monday with Kyle Schwarber, Starlin Castro and Jorge Soler joining the rookie third baseman. All four are having very good series and the Cubs are doing well as a result, even with limited production from Anthony Rizzo.
While the Cubbies bats came alive against Wacha and the pen on Monday, they’ll have to take another crack at solving Lackey on Tuesday.
On the other side, the Cardinals did something in Game 3 no other team could for months, hang four runs on Jake Arrieta in less than six innings. The team isn’t known for power, but hit two homers and has pop, speed and contact up and down the order.
PROP TALK
A few Cubs hitters have found success against Lackey in their careers, but nobody stood out in Game 1.
On the other side, there are a number of Cardinals’ hitters who’ve hit Hammel very well, including Jason Heyward. The former Brave is 9-for-18 in his career against Hammel.
If you’re looking for a likely candidate to go deep, Jhonny Peralta is a better candidate. The power hitting shortstop is 9-for-23 against Hammel with a pair of home runs and eight RBIs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Chicago doesn’t want to see the Cardinals bring this series back to St. Louis, but the pitching matchup surely isn’t favorable for the Cubs. They have a pitcher on the mound that’s been poor in the second half and pitches worse at home.
To make matters worse, the Cardinals offense figured out Arrieta on Monday. If they can handle him at home, they can handle Hammel. Take the Cardinals to force this series to a Game 5.
St. Louis 6, Chicago 3
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