The St. Louis Cardinals aim to close out their series against the Cincinnati Reds with a win after dropping two of three against them in St. Louis at the end of July. The Cardinals should have the upper hand as they’ve paid out for bettors all year with a total moneyline of $2,134 compared to the Reds’ -$972.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cardinals have the best record in baseball this season, going 67-38 while the Reds have punted this season, trading away Johnny Cueto at the deadline and posting a 47-56 record here through their first 103 games.
Despite the difference in records, the Reds did get the series win in St. Louis and the Cardinals are much worse on the road then at home. At home, they’re 24 games over .500, on the road, they’re 27-22. Interestingly, that road record is still better than the Reds’ home record of 27-24.
Recently, the Cardinals haven’t been as dominant as they were earlier, winning just four of their last eight while the Reds have taken four of their last six.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Michael Lorenzen will get his first start in August for the Reds after seeing his ERA skyrocket a run and a half upward after a dismal July where he went 0-4 with an 8.61 ERA.
Overall, the 23 year old right-hander is 3-6 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.577 WHIP in 84 1/3 big league innings.
The youngster has actually been a bit lucky on the year given his FIP of 5.82. Command and control have been major issues for the youngster who seems to be struggling to keep his head afloat.
Lorenzen is walking five batters per nine innings and is also missing in the strike zone, already allowing 15 long balls.
If the Reds stand a chance in this one, Lorenzen will have to turn things around quickly as Cincinnati has to contend with Michael Wacha.
Wacha has been one of the Cardinals’ most reliable arms this year. The 24-year old right-hander is 12-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.093 WHIP through 125 1/3 innings of work.
The workload is a bit concerning for the youngster who missed a good chunk of 2014 due to injury and has already eclipsed his workload that season by 18 innings.
Wacha’s production has slid a bit of late, too, as his ERA is up to 4.06 over his last five starts.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Wacha’s July was his worst month so far, but he had a bounce back start in his last outing, holding the Rockies scoreless through seven. Manager Mike Matheny spoke about what he say from his young righty after the game, saying:
“I really liked how he mixed his pitches in. He had good movement on his cutter. His changeup was a swing-and-miss pitch. He just had good rhythm right from the start…and everything just came out of his hand very effortlessly today.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
On the mound, there’s no question who has the upper hand. The Cardinals have an All-Star pitcher coming off a seven inning shutout and the Reds have a youngster with an 8.61 ERA in July. The Cards also have the better bullpen with a 2.34 ERA compared to the Reds’ 4.18.
Given the stark differences on the hill, if the Reds want to make up ground they will have to do that at the plate and on defense. The team does have a great defense, but at the plate they’re just about even with the Cardinals, each averaging right around four runs per game.
For the Cardinals, it’s all about getting just enough offense to support their amazing pitching and they have plenty of quality players to do just that.
They’re missing Matt Holliday who is on the disabled list for the second time this year, but Randal Grichuk has stepped up to make a huge impact with a .902 OPS through 73 games.
The team also recently promoted top prospect Stephen Piscotty who will see more playing time with Holliday out. Piscotty is already 14 for 35 in his first dozen games. Add in some pop from the newly acquired Brandon Moss and the Cardinals are more than covered for Holliday’s loss.
PROP TALK
Despite playing in the same division, this will be Lorenzen’s first start against the Cardinals while Wacha is an old pro against the Reds by now with eight games, including seven starts, against Cincinnati.
Wacha has pitched well against the Reds with a 2.01 ERA in 44 2/3 innings, but there is one player to watch as Joey Votto is 6 for 15 in his career against Wacha with a pair of doubles and a home run. Frazier also has a home run against him, but is just 5 for 19 overall.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Given Lorenzen’s recent struggles and Wacha’s overall numbers, this should be an easy win for the Cardinals who also have the clear edge in the bullpen.
Wacha’s workload is concerning moving forward, but the righty showed in his last outing that it has yet to truly impact him. Look for him and the bullpen to hold the Reds down as the Cardinal offense scores enough to pull out the win.
St. Louis 5, Cincinnati 3
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the St. Louis Cardinals versus the Cincinnati Reds will commence Thursday, August 6, 2015, at 12:35 p.m. ET at Great American Ball Park.
