
The St. Louis Cardinals (45-24, $1,741) are coming off a disappointing loss to the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday, but they still boast baseball’s best record and will aim to get back on track in the series opener against a struggling Miami Marlins (30-41, -$1,306) outfit on Tuesday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
With Sunday’s loss, the Cardinals are now mired in what qualifies as a slump for them, dropping three of their last five games.
Prior to that, however, St. Louis won five straight games. While the Cards are the heavy favorites in nearly every game they play, there is a bit of cause for concern as they open this series on the road. While dominant at home, the Cardinals are just 19-17 away from Busch Stadium ($92).
The Marlins, on the other hand, do not inspire much confidence. They’ve dropped four of their last five games, struggling against both the Yankees and the Reds. That said, they’re better at home with a .500 mark while they’re 11 games under .500 on the road.
PITCHING MATCHUP
A couple young guns will take the hill as these two squads meet down in South Beach with Carlos Martinez on the mound for the Cardinals and Jose Urena on the bump for the Marlins.
Martinez is finally getting a chance to start on a regular basis with the big club after a few years in the bullpen. He’s taken advantage of the opportunity as well, joining a Cardinals staff that is tops in the league with a 2.61 ERA.
Martinez himself is 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.257 WHIP through 80 1/3 innings of work. The workload is a bit concerning for the 23 year old right-hander as the season wears on, but he has yet to show signs of fatigue. He’s thrown six straight quality starts and has allowed just four total runs in his last 40 1/3 innings.
Urena, meanwhile, will be making just his sixth big league start after making his major league debut earlier this year.
So far, the 23-year old righty is 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA and 1.330 WHIP in 32 1/3 innings. In his last four starts, he boasts a 2.55 ERA and 1.135 WHIP in 24 2/3 innings, though he has only struck out 10 in that time, while walking nine.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Urena was effective in his last outing on Wednesday against the Yankees, but was effectively wild in that game. Speaking on his young arm after that game, manager Dan Jennings had this to say:
“Facing so many lefties, he made an adjustment late. That’s why we stuck with him. Early, he was missing arm side and off the plate, and this is a disciplined team. But I tip my hat. He got back into counts and competed all the way through.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
Offensively, the Marlins have the best hitter on the field, but the Cardinals have the better offensive club.
The Cardinals have scored eight more runs than the Marlins, but have been far more effective with their runs, of course a better pitching staff helps, too.
St. Louis has done a great job weathering the storm with Matt Holliday now on the disabled list. Yadier Molina is finally starting to hit with more authority while hitting his first two home runs of the year this past week.
The Cards also have production all over the infield with Jhonny Peralta providing power (10 home runs) while Kolton Wong (.786 OPS) and Matt Carpenter (.885 OPS) continue to rake atop the order.
As noted, unlike the Cards, the Marlins are all about one player: Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton leads the league in home runs (25) and RBIs (63), but the only other players with an OPS+ over 100 are Dee Gordon and Justin Bour. Gordon’s numbers are sliding after a torrid start, though he still has a .373 OBP while Bour has been a blessing in his 126 plate appearances since his promotion.
Interestingly, however, the Marlins have actually scored seven more runs than the Cardinals over their last 19 games.
PROP TALK
Keep an eye on Gordon in this one. The scrappy, speedy second baseman has faced Martinez eight times in his career and hit safely four times. He’s also collected a hit in nine of his last 10 games with three games recording three hits.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Marlins offense is a bit hotter than the Cardinals right now, but the Cards have a tendency to find a way to win. Of course, they also have superior pitching, not just with Martinez over Urena, but the Cardinals also have the superior bullpen with an NL leading 1.98 ERA.
St. Louis 5, Miami 3
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