Heading into the weekend series, the St. Louis Cardinals have taken six of nine against the Milwaukee Brewers this year and boast a Major League best 68-39 record with a NL leading $2,113 while the Brew Crew are pulling up the rear in the NL Central thanks to a 46-63 record and -$1,614 total moneyline.
In Saturday’s middle game, the Cards will look for the series win on national television.
ODDS ANALYSIS
St. Louis took the first lead of its series against Cincinnati in the top of the 10th inning on Wednesday, coming away with the win to avoid dropping a second consecutive series to the Reds.
The Cardinals have actually been slumping over their last 10 games, going just 5-5 which is quite a big deal for the team with the league’s best record, nearly 30 games over .500.
On the road, the Cards are still a very good team, but not quite as good when at home. On the road this year, they’re 28-23. On the other side, the Brewers are just 22-34 at home and while winning back-to-back games against the Padres are still just 4-11 in their last 15 games played, many of which have come at home.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Once again plagued by injuries, Jaime Garcia has been limited to just nine starts this season, but for the 28-year old southpaw out of Mexico, those nine starts have been good ones.
In 59 innings of work, Garcia has an ERA of 1.98 and a WHIP of 0.915. He missed the first month and a half of the season and then was out again for most of July, but has been back off the disabled list for two starts, throwing 11 innings in that time and allowing four runs.
In his last start, Garcia lasted just five innings. He, however, allowed just one run, but did walk four and threw 88 pitches.
Garcia is likely to be given a few more pitches on Saturday, but will still be watched carefully. He’s only topped 100 pitches once in his nine starts.
The lefty has one start against Milwaukee this year and allowed just one run on three hits in seven innings of work.
Pitching for the Brewers on Saturday is another starter that’s been limited by injuries this year: Wily Peralta.
Peralta had a break out campaign in 2014 with a 3.53 ERA and 17 wins, but through 11 starts in 2015 he’s just 2-6 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.500 WHIP. When he’s been on the mound, he’s struggled with command in the strike zone. He’s only walking 2.7 per nine innings, but is allowing 10.8 hits and has already given up nine home runs.
Like Garcia, Peralta is just two starts removed from his stay on the disabled list. In that time, he’s pitched one good start—a two run, six inning outing against the Giants—and one bad—a six run affair where he didn’t get out of the fourth against the Padres.
QUOTE TO NOTE
One of the Cardinal’s biggest assets is their bullpen which owns a major league best 2.27 ERA.
On Wednesday, the team used six relievers, each of whom produced a scoreless outing. Seth Maness was one of those pitchers and had this to say after the game:
“It was tremendous. Set the donut. One guy comes in. You just try to match that and keep passing the ball.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
With Garcia and the league’s best bullpen, the Cards’ pitching is in good hands, their offense is as well.
The Cardinals don’t have one of the league’s better offenses and St. Louis doesn’t traditionally win slugfests, though they also don’t normally play in slugfests. The Cards’ offense is built to score enough for their strong pitching and that is just what they do. They scored four on Wednesday to win 4-3, put up three on Sunday to win 3-2 and scored nine on July 30 to score the 9-8 victory.
The offense isn’t overloaded with power. Jhonny Peralta leads the team with 16 home runs while Matt Carpenter and Randal Grichuk offered 15 and 13 respectively.
The team is still without Matt Holliday, but Grichuk has filled in wonderfully for the slugger and Stephen Piscotty has done a good job as well in 14 games with a .318 average. The thing about the Cards is they always have someone else ready to step up and produce.
The Brewers’ lineup, meanwhile, is depleted after the trade deadline as they dealt away Carlos Gomez and Geraldo Parra, two of only five players on the team with at least 200 at bats and an OPS+ in the triple digits.
The team still has Adam Lind and Ryan Braun who each have an OPS of .841. They also still have Jonathan Lucroy and Khris Davis so the team can score runs, but for an offense plating just 3.93 runs per game, it’s never a good thing to lose some of your best performers.
PROP TALK
With Holliday sidelined, Carpenter is the only active Cardinal to have a home run against Peralta. Look for him to have another big game on Saturday as he’s 12 for 27 lifetime against Peralta with a homer and a .516 OBP.
Stay away from Brewers bats on the other side. Braun has had the most career at bats against Garcia, but is batting just .205 in 39 at bats though he does have a home run and 5 RBIs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Garcia has been nearly lights out when he pitches and the Cardinals’ bullpen is the best in the game.
St. Louis plays great fundamental baseball. In this game, they also have the offensive edge which they’ve managed to put up the best record in baseball without having great success more often than not.
St. Louis 5, Milwaukee 3
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