The Pittsburgh Pirates (50-34, $896) sit in second place in the NL Central and will look to close the gap this weekend as they host the St. Louis Cardinals (55-30, $2,040) with the third of four games being played on Saturday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Cardinals and Pirates are the two best teams in baseball right now and only two teams to have eclipsed 50 wins as of Thursday.
It should be a really fun series. These teams have met six times already with their first series resulting in a sweep for the Cardinals despite all three games being one-run affairs.
The second series—this one in Pittsburgh—went to the Pirates who took two games. The Pirates may actually have an edge over the Cards in this one. They are 29-15 at home while St. Louis is 24-19 on the road. Pittsburgh has also won five straight and eight of nine while the Cardinals have dropped two of three and six of ten.
PITCHING MATCHUP
A couple veterans take the hill on Saturday as right-handers John Lackey and A.J. Burnett matchup.
Lackey has thrown at least seven innings in seven of his last eight outings and was able to hold the Pirates to a single run over six innings back on May 2.
On the year, Lackey leads the Cardinals in innings (110 2/3) and has posted a solid overall line in his 17 starts, going 7-5 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.229 WHIP. Like the rest of the pitchers in this rotation, he has done exceptionally well keeping the ball in the park, allowing a total of just eight home runs.
Burnett, meanwhile, is fresh off being named to his first ever All-Star team. In 17 games, the 38-year old has thrown 113 innings, going 7-3 with a 1.99 ERA and 1.212 WHIP. While his ERA may be a bit lucky, his FIP is still a very low 2.61 thanks to just three home runs allowed and a solid 3.13 strike out to walk ratio.
Burnett’s 2015 season is a huge rebound from last year when he lost 18 games and had a 4.59 ERA for the Phillies. He seems comfortable in Pittsburgh and it shows. At home this year, Burnett has a 1.28 ERA and 1.118 WHIP. In his last two starts, he’s allowed just three runs through 14 2/3 innings of work.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Since May 22, the Pirates are 32-12 and the best team in baseball, when asked about their hot streak, manager Clint Hurdled said:
“They played so well for so long, and it just goes to show how our guys persevered. They stayed the course, kept taking care of today’s game, and it has gotten us here.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
On the offensive end, both teams are dealing with a number of injuries that impact the game.
For the Cardinals, they are already without Matt Holliday, Matt Adams and Jon Jay and have now just lost Kolten Wong to a mild concussion. He may return at some point in this series, but it’s still an uncertainty.
On the other side, the Pirates are without Josh Harrison who has been a spark plug during this team’s hot streak. They also have a questionable player of their own in Starling Marte who has missed the last three games due to an oblique injury.
Neither offense is a juggernaut as each ranks in the middle of the pack. In fact, the Cardinals have scored one more run than the Pirates this year, though they’ve also partaken in one more game.
For Pittsburgh, the loss of Harrison is big and the potential loss of Marte is huge, too, but the team still has Andrew McCutchen who has a .896 OPS despite a .636 mark in April. He is hitting .360 with a home run and four doubles in his last eight game for a 1.125 OPS.
In addition to McCutchen, Francisco Cervelli is having a great year behind the plate hitting .292 and Pedro Alvarez, Neil Walker and Jung Ho Kang help fill out a solid roster.
The Cards’ roster is also quite deep. Jason Heyward (.753 OPS) has picked up the pace for them of late and Kolten Wong (.782 OPS), Jhonny Peralta (.815 OPS) and Matt Carpenter (.799 OPS) form one of the better infields in the game.
PROP TALK
Jhonny Peralta has had a good season, but stay away from him in prop bets on Saturday. Burnett has owned him in the past as he is just 5 for 26 against him with eight strikeouts. On the other side, however, Matt Carpenter has seemed to have his number.
The scrappy third baseman for the Cards is 9 for 25 against him with a pair of doubles and two triples for a 1.100 OPS.
None of the Pirates have as many at bats against Lackey as the Cards do against Burnett, though Andrew McCutchen is 3 for 5 against him with a walk.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Cardinals win their games with great pitching in the rotation, a dominant bullpen and enough offense. The Pirates have a very similar game plan.
In terms of pitching, Pittsburgh may actually have the edge in this one. Lackey has been great this year, but Burnett is the All-Star and the one with a sub-2 ERA. In the pen, the Cardinals have the best ERA in the National League, but Pittsburgh is second with a 2.47 ERA compared to St. Louis’s 2.30.
With it being so close on paper, I’m going with the Pirates who have a few less offensive injuries as well as former MVP, Andrew McCutchen leading their charge.
Pittsburgh 4, St. Louis 3
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this nationally-televised baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers an adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in and start gambling during the game now!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates is scheduled for Saturday, July 11, 2015, at 7:15 p.m. ET at PNC Park. The matchup will be televised regionally on FOX.
