Fresh off of a great sweep of the Orioles, the Minnesota Twins (46-39 SU, +15.60 Units) should be flying high heading into Saturday's third game of a four-game series with the Detroit Tigers (43-41 SU, -0.42 Units).
PITCHING MATCHUP
To say that it's time to sell on Alfredo Simon right now is an understatement. We saw this last year with Simon when he made the All-Star Game and finished with below-average numbers for the rest of the season. His decline came earlier this year, though.
Simon has allowed 37 hits and 23 runs in his last four outings. His WHIP in that stretch is 2.26, and his ERA is 10.18.
Simply put, this man is poison at the moment. Yes, the Twins don't have the best offense in the world, and yes, they were held to just one run over 7.2 innings against him in May, but this is a much different time and is a man clearly lacking in confidence on the bump.
In a vacuum, the man opposing Simon on Saturday, Phil Hughes has very similar numbers. His 7-6 record and 4.19 ERA are comparable to Simon's 8-5 record and 4.18 ERA.
However, that's about where the similarities stop. Simon has almost as many walks in his last four starts (9) as Hughes has for the whole season (11).
Hughes has also been the picture of consistency of late, allowing no more than four earned runs and lasting at least six innings in each of his last six outings.
In that stretch, Hughes has allowed more than one run in an inning just three times in 42.2 innings, an average of one crooked number per 14 or so innings.
ADVANCED STATS
What we haven't discussed with Simon though, is the fact that he has been horribly unlucky in this last month. He has a .402 BABIP, the highest in baseball in this span, and his FIP of 5.01 in the last 30 days doesn't nearly match his ERA of 8.17. His home run to fly ball rate is 16.1 percent, a rate which isn't anywhere near his career average of 11.6 percent.
However, those numbers still aren't set to be good. The Twins quietly have the second-highest rated second baseman offensively per FanGraphs in the league in Brian Dozier, who blasted his 18th home run of the season on Wednesday night, and they have four men (Dozier, Torii Hunter, Trevor Plouffe and Joe Mauer) who could get to 90 RBIs by the time this season is said and done with.
The Twins have a team ISO of .143, a number which isn't that bad considering the fact that there is some dead weight in terms of power in this lineup.
TALKING BULLPENS
One of these teams has the most consistent closer in the game on its side. The other one has a heart attack waiting to happen out there.
There isn't much to say about Glen Perkins. He's headed to the All-Star Game for a reason, and he is 28-for-28 this year in save chances. There's hardly a price you can put on his head in live betting when he has a lead going into the ninth, particularly if that lead is more than one run.
Joakim Soria though, is a much different question. We're just not sure what the Tigers have here in Soria. He has thrown just one perfect inning in his last 11 outings. In that span, he has allowed five home runs and five earned runs.
Worse is the fact that Soria is averaging 18.2 pitches per inning in that run.
That's why there's a huge difference between Detroit having a 3-2 lead in the ninth and Minnesota having that same lead. We'd almost rather trust Perkins with a one-run lead than Soria with a two-run lead. The difference is legitimately that big.
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