ODDS ANALYSIS
A two-game winning streak was too much for the Miami Marlins to handle. After breaking an eight-game losing skid with a win over Baltimore Saturday, the Marlins made it two straight Sunday, winning consecutive games for the first time since the beginning of May. The Marlins played all 10 of those games as the favorite at home and were probably happy to get out of town. The Marlins fell 10 games under .500 with Monday’s loss at Pittsburgh – five games under both at home and on the road – and are in the red 12.63 units on the moneyline and 14.93 units on the runline this season.
A recent hot streak has the Pirates playing like many thought they would. A win in the series opener Monday, their fourth straight, got the Bucs back to .500 at 22-22. After losing the first two of an eight-game homestand, the Pirates responded with a weekend sweep of the Mets and with Monday’s win the Bucs are up 0.98 units on the moneyline through the first six games. The under is 9-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 14 games and the Bucs played below the total in each of Gerrit Cole’s last four starts.
PITCHING MATCHUP
With three starters on the disabled list the Marlins rotation is in flux. Top prospect Jose Urena was recalled from Triple-A to start Tuesday and we might see Justin Nicolino get the call Wednesday. Nicolino is 4-1 with a 2.15 ERA in nine starts for New Orleans.
Gerrit Cole (6-2, 2.05 ERA) is coming off the best start of his big league career Friday against the Mets. He allowed just an unearned run on six hits with 10 strikeouts over 8.1 innings lowering his ERA to 2.05 in a 4-1 win. He’s 10-2 with a 2.77 ERA over his last 17 starts at PNC Park.
Cole is 0-1 with a 5.25 ERA in two lifetime starts against the Marlins with 12 strikeouts and three walks over 12 innings.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“When you looked up in the ninth inning he was still throwing 97 [mph]. His slider was absolutely devastating at times in the middle of the game. We knew going in he was going to be tough to hit.” – Mets manager Terry Collins after Gerrit Cole shut his team down for 8.1 innings
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Pirates have scored early and often during a four-game winning streak that’s seen them outscore their opponents 25-6 following Monday’s 4-2 win. A two-run second inning propelled them to a win on Friday then the Bucs got to Mets ace Matt Harvey for a pair in the first on Saturday. It took them a few frames Sunday before getting on the board in the fourth to sweep the Mets. The Bucs trailed for the first time in their streak Monday after the Marlins got one in the first but a three-run second inning erased that deficit. “We needed this weekend. We needed to play some ball. We played good team baseball this weekend. Everyone threw something in,” Bucs manager Clint Hurdle said after the Pirates swept the Mets.
PROP TALK
Over his brief career Giancarlo Stanton has proven to be one of the most exciting hitters in baseball. It’s been a rough stretch for Stanton and the Marlins, who ended an eight-game losing streak with a pair of wins over Baltimore last weekend. Surprisingly Stanton didn’t factor in the offense going hitless in seven at-bats, but he broke out Monday with a couple of hits, including his 13th home run of the year. Stanton is one Miami hitter with some success off Gerrit Cole, smacking a home run among his three hits in five lifetime at-bats.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Miami’s pitching staff is about as messed up as the team’s front office. The Marlins recently put Mat Latos on the DL, joining fellow starters Henderson Alvarez and Jarred Cosart, and there is no end in sight for a team that has struggled mightily. They still have Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton to handle the offense but the young arms brought up to fill the rotation spots will have to contribute immediately.
Stellar starting pitching and a visit from the woeful Marlins have the Pirates thinking about a run that could get them back in the thick of the NL Central race. Cole shutdown the Mets in a masterful performance in his last outing that started the Bucs win streak. The kid has proven to be Cy Young material this season and could have an easy time with the Marlins. The Bucs have gotten some production from Josh Harrison and Pedro Alvarez recently, a sign they may be snapping out of season-long slumps.
Pittsburgh 7, Miami 3
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