With both teams in the heat of battle in the AL East, this becomes a huge weekend set as the New York Yankees (42-37, -$209) play host to the Tampa Bay Rays (42-38, $273) in the middle game of three on Saturday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Coming into the series, the Rays had taken four of the last five head-to-head meetings between these teams, though just one of those four wins came at Yankee Stadium.
Overall, New York actually holds the edge in terms of record so far this year, beating the Rays six out of 10 times, taking two of three in the only series between these teams in New York this year.
Despite that head-to-head edge, the Yankees and Rays have both been struggling of late. The Yankees dropped three straight before rebounding with a win on Wednesday and have dropped seven of their last 11, including a pair of losses to Philadelphia.
The Rays, on the other hand, are in the midst of a four game losing streak and have dropped eight of their last 10 games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Based on name alone, it would seem that the Yankees have the edge on the mound with Michael Pineda getting the start against Nathan Karns.
Pineda has impressive stuff and the 26-year old right-hander was almost unhittable in a brief stint last year and early on this season, but his numbers are mediocre at best as he is 8-5 with a 4.08 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 92 2/3 innings.
The youngster managed just 76 1/3 innings pitched last year and did not pitch in the majors the previous two seasons because of injury.
Pineda did allow just three runs—two earned—in eight innings against the Astros his last time out, but overall, his last five starts have left plenty to be desired. In that time, he is just 2-3 with a 5.72 ERA and 1.482 WHIP in 28 1/3 innings, perhaps indicating that he is a bit fatigued.
Pineda’s counterpart on Saturday has actually gotten better as the season has progressed with Karns doing his part to make up for the numerous injuries in the rotation.
The 27-year old right-hander is finally getting a chance to stick in the majors and he is taking advantage of that chance, going 4-4 with a 3.26 ERA and 1.264 WHIP in 91 innings spanning 16 starts. His only major problem is his league leading 10 wild pitches.
Karns continues to improve as he has now gone four straight starts without giving up more than two runs, allowing four total runs in 23 1/3 innings of work.
He has yet to show he can go much deeper than six innings, but has shown he can give you six quality innings before turning things over to the pen.
QUOTE TO NOTE
The Rays were nearly no-hit by the Indians on Wednesday. Overall, they had a poor offensive series against Cleveland and manager Kevin Cash had this to say after the 8-1 loss on Wednesday:
“We’ve got a lot of guys that are itching to get out of this little bit of a funk and I think we all have plenty of confidence that they’ll do that.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
With the Rays’ offense going cold against Cleveland, it is even easier to see the Yankees offensive edge heading into this series.
It will be up to the Rays pitching to keep Tampa Bay in the game as their bats cannot matchup with the Yankees in a slug fest.
Currently, the Yankees rank second in all of baseball in both total runs (368) and home runs (104). The Rays, meanwhile, have scored 81 fewer runs despite playing one additional game and have hit 33 fewer long balls.
Tampa Bay has scored more than two runs just twice in their last seven games and in those two games, they only combined for seven. The Rays have a lot of injured pitchers, but they also have injured position players with Desmond Jennings, James Loney, John Jaso and Tim Beckham sidelined.
Logan Forsythe (.809 OPS) and Joey Butler (.840 OPS) have been big for the Rays in addition to Evan Longoria (.766 OPS), but outside of a couple role players like Brandon Guyer (.755 OPS) and David DeJesus (.713), the offense has been lacking.
For the Yankees, Jacoby Ellsbury is still out, though he is coming back soon, and Carlos Beltran is once again an injury concern.
The loss of the outfielders is a hit, but the team still has Mark Teixeira (.884 OPS), Brian McCann (.803 OPS) and Alex Rodriguez (.887 OPS) raking in the middle and also still have Stephen Drew and Chris Young on top of them with at least 10 home runs each. Add Brett Gardner (.373 OBP) at the top and the team has balance and power.
PROP TALK
Pineda’s recent struggles are the main concern for the Yankees in this one, but the righty has found a good amount of success against Tampa Bay.
Overall, he has a 3.22 ERA against them and has held key players down. In this one, stay away from Evan Longoria in any prop bets, the third baseman is just 1 for 17 lifetime against Pineda with five strike outs. If you need to go with a Ray, Steven Souza Jr. is likely your best bet. The young hitter is 3 for 6 with a home run.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Pineda has struggled of late and the Yankees bullpen has not been nearly as good without Andrew Miller in the back end. Still, the Yankees pitching should be good enough against a Rays' offense that has been weak all year, but particularly of late.
Pineda has owned the Rays and the Yankees have more than enough bats to get the job done and get the win.
New York 6, Tampa Bay 3
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Tampa Bay Rays versus the New York Yankees will commence Saturday, July 4, 2015, at 1:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. The contest will be televised nationally on FS1.
