After winning the American League East, the Toronto Blue Jays are back in the playoffs for the first time since their World Series win in 1993. The Jays ended the year with the second best record in the league at 93-69 and boast a solid $1,045 cumulative spread. Their reward: the Texas Rangers who were five games worse at 88-74, but a far better bet overall with a MLB leading $2,955 cumulative moneyline.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Jays beat the Rangers in four of their six head-to-head meetings in 2015. That gives them a bit more confidence, but the bigger thing is the home field advantage.
Toronto was 53-28 at home, but a game under-.500 on the road this season and will use the Rogers Centre to their advantage as the people of Toronto—and in fact, Canada—will be excited to see their team back in postseason play.
The Blue Jays are also uniquely suited to play in that park given their offensive prowess and awesome power.
The Rangers, of course, are a very hot team, winning 14 of their last 22 games. They’re also a very good road team having won 45 of their 81 overall played games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
The Blue Jays made a few big deals at the non-waiver trade deadline back in July. One of those deals was to acquire David Price for situations just like this.
The veteran southpaw has been dominant since heading north of the border, going 9-1 in 11 starts with a 2.30 ERA and a 1.009 WHIP through 74 1/3 innings of work.
Over the course of the season, the Jays are 18-5 with a league leading 2.45 ERA if you include his time in Detroit.
Against the Rangers, Price gave up two runs in six innings in his only start against them in 2015, but is only 3-4 with a 5.15 ERA against them in 11 career starts.
While the head-to-head numbers are a bit concerning, Price has plenty of playoff experience to bring to the table. In the ALDS last year, he went eight strong innings against the Orioles, but has a 4.98 career ERA in the ALDS and 4.50 career ERA in the postseason overall.
The Rangers were another team that acquired an ace at the deadline, but it appears Yovani Gallardo may get the ball ahead of Cole Hamels.
Gallardo has pitched very well against the right-handed heavy Jays, pitching 13 2/3 innings of scoreless innings, allowing just six singles along the way. He’s one of few pitchers that’s been able to hold this offense down. Gallardo will also have plenty of rest while Hamels threw on Sunday.
The 29-year old right-hander has had a good year. He’s 13-11 with a 3.42 ERA and he’s held down this staff much of the year.
QUOTE TO NOTE
The Rangers waited until the last day of the season to clinch and afterwards, manager Jeff Banister had this to say:
“We talked about being on a mission in Spring Training, and they never wavered from Day 1. I know these guys, and they are not done yet.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Blue Jays played without Troy Tulowitzki for most of the last month, but got him back for the last series, seeing him go 3-for-8 with two doubles.
With Tulo back in the fold, it just lengthens an already dangerous lineup. Each of Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson have slammed at least 39 home runs and driven in at least 111 runs. Add in the likes of Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Chris Colabello and many more and it’s easy to see how Toronto scored 127 more runs than any other team in baseball.
Since the break, the Jays have also been the most prolific offense, but the runners up were the Rangers. Texas was just 24 runs behind since the break and saw a number of players head up, including Shin-Soo Choo who ended the season with a .838 OPS, second on the team to Prince Fielder’s .841.
PROP TALK
While the Jays have yet to solve Gallardo this year, a few Toronto players have found success against him in their careers. Troy Tulowitzki has had the most at bats against him as both spent much of their careers in the National League. Tulo is 11-for-27 with a home runs and four doubles. Edwin Encarnacion, meanwhile, is 5-for-16 with three of those five hits being homers.
For the Rangers, Adrian Beltre is 10-for-33 with two home runs against Price while Elvis Andrus is batting 10-for-25.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Jays dropped their last two games of the regular season while the Rangers are coming in on a high after clinching on Sunday.
That high gives Texas a bit of a boost as they head to the Great White North. The home field edge for the Jays, however, plus Price on the hill tilts the odds in Toronto’s favor.
I think the Jays will be able to figure out Gallardo just enough, and then take advantage of the pen, though both teams have some bullpen questions. Overall, I still like the Jays deep lineup and the dominance of Price over Texas in Game 1.
Toronto 4, Texas 3
The MLB lines for this contest will first be released by BookMaker Sportsbook. Gamble on the game between every half inning with BookMaker’s live betting feature. Along with an adjusted in-game moneyline, you can wager on what will happen in the next at-bat or how many runs will be scored in the next inning. Live betting is the most exciting way to play!
Access live betting lines from your mobile device at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here so start betting with BookMaker today! The ballgame pitting the Texas Rangers versus the Toronto Blue Jays will commence Thursday, October 8, 2015, at TBD at Rogers Centre. The matchup will be televised regionally on FOX Sports 1.
