The Cincinnati Reds (15-16 SU, -0.75 Units) steal a ton of bases and hit gobs of home runs. Those two factors parlayed with two pitchers who have been far luckier than the average Joes this season could lead Monday Night Baseball on ESPN to being a higher scoring game against the Atlanta Braves (14-17 SU, -1.58 Units).
PITCHING MATCHUP
Mike Leake is arguably the toughest pitcher in baseball to trust right now. There's no doubting the fact that he has been fantastic in his last two outings, allowing a total of just eight hits and two walks over 16 scoreless innings against the Pirates and the Braves.
However, Atlanta put a whopping 23 balls in play against Leake when these two teams met at the end of April and had just a single by Nick Markakis and a double by Freddie Freeman to show for its work.
This is nothing new for Leake. His BABIP is just .185 in 2015, the lowest mark amongst starting pitchers in the game. It's a number that just has to change, and it could do so early on in this outing. The righty has allowed four of his 12 runs this year in the first inning.
Shelby Miller will get the ball for the Braves in this game, and he too could be problematic in terms of reverting to the mean.
The righty is 4-1 with a 1.66 ERA for the Braves in his first six starts of the year, and that's an issue. Miller is once again having problem with his control. He walked 73 men in 183.0. innings last year, and he has 13 free passes issued in 38.0 innings this season.
The alarming number though, is the BABIP. Miller is sixth in the biggest in BABIP at .206. Historically, batters have hit around .235 against him.
Had these two pitchers matched up three weeks ago, we probably would have seen a total of around 8.5 or 9. This 7.5 could be a gift.
ADVANCED STATS
One of the popular factors in our live betting is what the next player at bat will do at the plate.
Keep a close eye on Jay Bruce in this one. Yes, Bruce is only hitting .167 with 33 strikeouts in 102 plate appearances, but advanced stats will tell you that he is due for better luck. His BABIP is just .194, the seventh worst mark in the majors, and his ISO of .202 is destined to improve.
Part of the reason why the Reds are so dangerous is because one swing of the bat can change an entire game. Bruce only has 17 hits this season, but five of those are home runs.
Between both Miller's low BABIP allowed and Bruce's low BABIP, along with Miller's propensity to not locate pitches well, Bruce could be a huge play in live betting on Monday, especially knowing that he is going to be based on being around a .200 hitter at the plate for prop purposes.
TALKING BULLPENS
The Reds and Braves both have some really big arms in their bullpens. Aroldis Chapman is one of the most feared pitchers in the game, while Jason Grilli has rebuilt himself again this year into an efficient closer.
However, getting to these closers can be a chore. The Reds this year are leaving just 63.0 percent of inherited runners on base, tied for dead last in the game.
Just as bad is the fact that the Braves rank 24th in the league in LOB percentage at 70.0.
Not surprisingly, when you see a lot of inherited runners allowed, you see a lot of walks as well out of these bullpens. Cincinnati and Atlanta rank second and third worst in the game with 4.50 and 4.30 BB/9 out of their bullpens.
The baseball betting odds for this game were first available at BookMaker Sportsbook. The Reds opened at -140, while the total surfaced at 7.5. BookMaker is going to have multiple betting options available for this baseball matchup. Live wagering during commercials offers and adjusted moneyline, individual inning run totals and next hitter results. Log in, and start gambling during the game now!
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute, so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The game between the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds will start at 7:10 p.m. ET on Monday, May 11, 2015 at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, OH. The matchup will be televised nationally on ESPN.
