Two teams that have played well below expectations will square off when the Detroit Tigers visit the Boston Red Sox in the finale of a three-game set. Detroit has played the most games over the scoreline in the Majors this season and could do some damage against a questionable Red Sox staff.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Detroit’s quest for a fifth straight AL Central Division title and postseason appearance are all but done. But hey, at least they’re not the Red Sox. The Tigers opened the second half of the season going 3-4 during a seven-game homestand, down 2.14 units after Thursday’s extra-inning loss to Seattle. Though they cashed the under in that 3-2 loss, the Tigers have played above the scoreline a major league high 54 times with the over 25-5 in their last 30 overall and 15-2 in their last 17 road games. Following their winless road trip to open the second half that saw them lose four times to the Angels and thrice in Houston, the Sox own the AL’s worst record and supplanted the Phillies as the least profitable team in the majors, in the red 18.5 units.
PITCHING MATCHUP
A stretch of eight consecutive Mariners retired was something to build on for Shane Greene (4-7, 6.52 ERA) in his last start Tuesday. But many of his outs were hit hard on a night when he gave up five runs on six hits over 4.2 innings. Remember when he started the season with three straight wins and a 0.39 ERA? It’s been a hard fall since then that included a demotion to the minors. He’s won just one game since giving up five or more earned runs seven times in 12 starts.
Greene hasn’t enjoyed much success against the Red Sox with a 10.57 ERA, 2.61 WHIP and .343 batting average against over just 7.2 innings of three appearances.
Eduardo Rodriguez (5-3, 4.64 ERA) will try to recover from a tough first start after the break when he was shelled for six hits and seven runs over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Angels on Monday. When the young lefty is good, he’s real good, and when he’s bad, he’s horrible. He’s allowed two or fewer runs seven times, going 5-0 with a 1.22 ERA in those games. In three others – all losses – he’s surrendered 22 earned runs in 10 innings.
Rodriguez will face the Tigers for the first time.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We keep waiting for that step or two forward, and then that third of fourth step to get rolling, but every time you feel like you’re on the cusp of something good or something positive happening, we end up losing a game.” – Tigers manager Brad Ausmus
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
It’s hard to point the blame at anyone in particular for the Red Sox epic disaster that has become the 2015 season. The pitching, especially from the starters, has been bad, and offensively the team had some of the toughest stretches imaginable in Beantown. That all adds up to the current state of the Red Sox. Just two weeks ago the Sox flirted with hope, having pulled within 5.5 games of first place New York with a 5-3 win at Fenway Park. After their eighth straight loss Thursday, the winless road trip to Anaheim and Houston all but sealed their fate. The Red Sox own the worst record in the AL and are 12 games out of first place in the AL East with glaring weaknesses seemingly up and down the roster. The Red Sox have faltered so dramatically that it will be difficult for them to recover.
PROP TALK
A good sign for the Red Sox offense could be the emergence of Mike Napoli from a season-long slump. Napoli went 3 for 4 with a home run and two doubles, driving in a pair in the final game of Boston’s road trip Thursday at Houston, and went 7 for 15 in his final four games to get his average above the Mendoza Line for the first time in three weeks. Napoli hit a home run in his only official at-bat against Shane Greene, adding three walks and a sac fly with three RBIs. Napoli probably has a hot streak in him; it just remains to be seen if it comes in Boston.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Red Sox starter Eduardo Rodriguez hasn’t had back-to-back bad outings this season and he’s coming off a whopper in Anaheim where he didn’t get out of the second inning. Detroit’s Shane Greene hasn’t had a decent outing in two months and he was rocked again his last turn. The Sox have struggled to score but getting back to Fenway Park might help. Facing Greene will definitely help their struggling bats and Rodriguez has a nice bounce back game in a slugfest.
Boston 8, Detroit 6
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