ODDS ANALYSIS
It’s hard to imagine a series less than a month into the season having as much of an impact on the year as this one.
The Detroit Tigers face the Kansas City Royals for the first time since narrowly beating them out for a division title last year and the two are right up there as the most profitable in MLB.
At 15-7 the Tigers hold a half-game lead over KC in the standings and are in the black 6.82 units on the moneyline and 10.28 units on the runline through 22 games. Detroit’s been good on the road going 7-2 up 5.09 units.
To put the stamp of success on their rebuilding project the Royals need to beat the defending champs, something they failed to do last season when they beat the Tigers just six times in their 19 meetings, a record that cost them the Central Division title, losing out by a single game. KC enters the series with three wins in its past seven games but overall the Royals are a solid bet in the black 7.21 units on the monelyline and 8.76 units on the runline; something’s gotta give in this series. The Royals just took two of three from Cleveland scorching the Indians for 22 runs cashing the over each time and the over is 11-8-2 in KC’s 21 games.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Alfredo Simon (4-0, 1.65 ERA) can become the ninth Tiger in the last 100 years to win each of his first five starts to begin a season. His latest victory came with 6.2 innings of one-run ball Saturday against the Indians at Comerica Park.
Simon has one start in five lifetime appearances against the Royals with a 3-1 record, one save and a 3.18 ERA covering 11.1 innings. The bulk of his work against KC came as a member of the Orioles from 2008 to 2011.
KC’s’ Danny Duffy (1-0, 4.15 ERA) delivered a strong outing in Friday’s no-decision against the White Sox, allowing just an unearned run on six hits over 5.1 innings. Duffy has gotten progressively better over his four starts watching his ERA drop to a respectable 4.15.
Duffy has a curious history against the Tigers – he’s had five quality starts in nine tries against them with a 3.42 ERA over 50 innings, but is just 1-6 versus Detroit.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We’re always in a game. I think it helps our pitchers that they understand that, that as long as they can keep us close and keep us in the game we’ve got a chance to win.” – Tigers second baseman Ian Kinsler
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
You know the Royals want to send a message to the Tigers that they are for real and contenders to dethrone the four-time Central Division champions. In order to do that they must win more than the six games they captured from Detroit last season and they have a glorious opportunity with the first meeting of the season between the top teams in the division coming in the Royals yard. A fast start would be helpful but KC did the bulk of its damage against Cleveland in the sixth and seventh frames getting to aces Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer in the later stages of their outing. The Royals will do the same against Alfredo Simon and the weak front-end of the Tigers bullpen. Watch for some middle-inning magic from KC in this one.
PROP TALK
Whatever Mike Moustakas did in the offseason he needs to bottle and sell and he’ll make a mint. Always a promising hitter he never found his groove and was atrocious last season batting .212 with a .271 OBP playing in 140 games. Fast forward to this season and they guy can’t be stopped. Moose is the hottest hitter in baseball after destroying Cleveland pitching for eight hits in 14 at-bats lifting his average to .353. Look for Moustakas to ignite the Royals offense with a few knocks against Alfredo Simon.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The two favorites in the AL Central hook up in a four-game set with plenty on the line when the Tigers and Royals meet. Detroit, the defending division champ, is trying to keep its perch atop the standings while holding off the upstart Royals, who want to prove last season’s AL pennant and World Series appearance was no fluke. Detroit’s pitching has cooled a bit since a sizzling start but the offense is still on fire and a force from top to bottom. Four regulars are hitting above .300 and they score nearly five runs a game.
The Royals had their problems with the Tigers last season – winning just six of 19 meetings – and it cost them the division title. They probably weren’t too concerned after a magnificent run through the playoffs and a near World Series title, but getting a jump on their competition would be a giant leap forward for them. Danny Duffy has pitched better in each of his four starts and will have to be sharp. Tigers’ starter Alfredo Simon is 36-28 with a 3.75 ERA in his career and a guy who’s been in the league for eight seasons doesn’t suddenly turn into Cy Young overnight. Look for the Royals to get to him and claim a victory in the series opener.
Kansas City 4, Detroit 3
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