Both Texas teams had these two squads down in their respective division series, but neither were able to deliver the final blow as both teams roll into the ALCS on a high.
Of course, of these two teams, only the Royals have the experience of a year ago behind them.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Last year, the Royals rolled through the ALCS in four straight over the Orioles, riding high off a huge wildcard win and an ALDS sweep of the Angels.
Kansas City didn’t have such a hot start in this postseason, nor did they have a clean run through the ALDS. Even so, the Royals had their moment that turned the tides in the series in the eighth inning of Game 4 and can ride that this year much like they rode their come from behind Wild Card win a year ago.
Kansas City is also at home for Game 1 and that’s big. They were 51-30 at home in the regular season and 2-1 in the ALDS. The Jays, on the other hand, weren’t at their best when on the road.
PITCHING MATCHUP
David Price is expected to get the start for Toronto after starting Game 1 of the ALDS. The 30-year old southpaw will be making his first ever ALCS start.
So far this postseason, David Price has struggled. He gave up eight runs and 11 hits, including two homers, in 10 innings of work.
Even with the weak ALDS performance, Price is the best pitcher on Toronto’s staff. After coming over from Detroit, Price proceeded to finish the regular season going 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA and 1.009 WHIP.
In his career against the Royals, Price is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. He’s also held Kansas City batters to a meager 0.884 WHIP.
Kansas City’s starter is a bit less certain. Johnny Cueto delivered a huge start on Wednesday so he’s out. Yordano Ventura started Game 1 of the ALDS, but lasted just seven innings in two games, surrendering six runs. He was hot to end the regular season though.
Another option is Edinson Volquez. Volquez was the team’s best starter this year, going 13-9 with a 3.55 ERA. He was solid, though unspectacular in Game 3 against Houston. He allowed three runs in five and 2/3 innings and kept the team in the game, but took the loss regardless.
QUOTE TO NOTE
The Royals were six outs from elimination in Game 4, but roared back with a huge eighth inning. After Game 4, Eric Hosmer spoke about how the offense got rolling, saying:
“The mindset really from the whole entire team, the whole entire offense, was just make this at-bat count.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Jays have Price on the mound, but their biggest strength—as it’s been all year—is their offense. They have outscored everyone and out homered everyone.
The gap between the Jays and Royals in the postseason isn’t as big as the regular season. Toronto has scored just one more run than Kansas City. They’ve also hit the same number of homers.
PROP TALK
When you think of the deep Royals lineup, names like Eric Hosmer, Kendrys Morales and Ben Zobrist come to mind. The team has plenty of good hitters and they do a good job passing the baton. They have speed, power when they need it and best of all make solid contact.
While the lineup is good 1-9, you generally don’t think about Alex Rios when you think of the Royals’ best hitters, but the veteran outfielder has been a beast against Price, going 12-for-30 with two home runs and 10 RBIs.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Toronto won four of seven against the Royals in the regular season and have their ace on the hill. Price is the best starter on either team, but he hasn’t proven himself as a postseason starter, yet. In fact, his own manager opted to give him three innings with a six run lead in Game 4 rather than save him to start Game 5.
Kansas City is a red hot team. They’ve scored 16 runs in the last two games and did so with very good pitchers on the hill in Lance McCullers, Collin McHugh and Dallas Keuchel.
I expect Kansas City’s offense to keep pace with the Jays in Game 1 and the home field edge and confidence from the defending AL champions to give the Royals the edge.
Kansas City 7, Toronto 5
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