ODDS ANALYSIS
After having Monday’s game rained out, the Twins and Red Sox will play the second of a day-night doubleheader on Wednesday.
The Red Sox were swept by the Twins last week in Minneapolis, part of a 1-6 road trip that has the Sox searching for answers.
Everyone is waiting for the Twins to fold because they can’t be this good, right? The Twins surprised everyone vaulting into first place in the AL Central by going 20-7 in May for their most wins in a month since 1991. They are the most profitable team in baseball on the moneyline, up 16.91 units following a pair of home wins to close out a series and homestand with the Blue Jays. The Twins haven’t been as successful on the road, entering the series 11-12 overall in the black 2.67 units, but they were 7-4 on the road in May up 5.56 units.
The Red Sox have been strong at home on the under going 3-10 in their 13 games at Fenway Park prior to this series while playing below the scoreline in two of Rick Porcello’s last three home starts.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Minnesota’s Trevor May (3-3, 5.07 ERA) surrendered four runs on eight hits with five strikeouts over six innings to the Blue Jays in his last outing getting a no-decision. He struggled with his command and got behind hitters but yielded only one walk. He has not allowed fewer than three earned runs in his last four turns.
May faces the Red Sox for the first time when he makes his 19th career start.
Boston’s Rick Porcello (4-4, 5.37 ERA) was tagged for six runs on seven hits in seven innings against the Twins in his previous start and allowed 13 earned runs over 11.1 innings in his last two outings. He’s given up five home runs combined in his last three turns while posting a 7.50 ERA with a 1-2 record.
Porcello has faced Minnesota more than any other team posting an 8-8 record and 4.10 ERA in 24 career starts.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“They’ve played well enough over a period of time now where I think they believe they can find a way to hang around games and maybe come back. We haven’t had a lot of comebacks. We’ve had a lot of games that we’ve won from the start.” – Twins manager Paul Molitor.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Twins have been the biggest surprise in the Majors this year, 11 games over .500 and in first place in the AL Central after taking two of three from Toronto over the weekend for their eighth series win in the last nine. The Twins don’t have an everyday position player hitting .300 and their on-base percentage is in the bottom third in MLB, yet they continue to win. Much of their success comes from scoring early, putting pressure on opponents, and relying on a pen that’s been real good. The Twins have scored more runs than any team through the first three innings of games, including 30 first-inning runs, and are nearly unbeatable when they score first.
PROP TALK
By simply looking at the statistics it’s hard to figure out how the Twins have been so good. Taking a peak at the numbers Torii Hunter puts up gives us an idea. Hunter hits .279 on the year but his average increases nearly 80 points with runners in scoring position and 13 of his 32 RBIs have come with two out. That’s some clutch hitting from the veteran who will celebrate his 40th birthday next month. Hunter has a .323 lifetime average in Fenway Park and has touched Rick Porcello for a .412 career average. Hunter keeps the production going in this game with a few RBI’s.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Both starting pitchers have struggled this season but the Sox Rick Porcello is the supposed ace of the staff and needs to start acting like it. He’s pitched some decent games but a majority of his outings have not been very good and he faces a team that cuffed him around just a week ago. The Red Sox are the worst team in a bad division and that’s not good.
The Twins hated to see the month of May end after going 20-7 and manager Paul Molitor said following Sunday’s win over Toronto, “I think maybe we’re going to change tomorrow to May 32nd and see what happens.” The Twins did just about everything right during May and that can’t continue. The Sox get to starter Trevor May who somehow remains in the rotation despite a 6.42 ERA in 19 career games.
Boston 7, Minnesota 4
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