Michael Wacha has been one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball this season.
For live betting purposes though, we have reason to believe that he and his St. Louis Cardinals (31-16 SU, +13.48 Units) might actually be worth fading against the Los Angeles Dodgers (28-18 SU, +1.60 Units).
PITCHING MATCHUP
At some point, Wacha is going to run into the wrong end of Lady Luck, and this could be the game where it happens. He has been phenomenal in nine starts, going 7-0 with a 1.87 ERA, but his FIP is 3.64 and his xFIP is 4.09, much more legitimate figures to work with.
Furthermore, he's going against a lineup which doesn't give itself up to a bunch of strikeouts, which only makes his 5.46 K/9 look worse and worse. He's got a BABIP of .232 and is stranding 85.1 percent of his base runners. It all just can't continue.
Carlos Frias is going to be a man many just want to out and out fade after he allowed 10 runs over four innings in his last start. Remember though, that prior to that, he hadn't allowed more than three runs in any game.
The concern with Frias, of course, is when he is deep into games. When he exceeds 60 pitches, batters are hitting a stunning .420 off of him this year, and you know at that point, you want to live bet against the boys in blue for an inning or two until the call to the bullpen is made.
ADVANCED STATS
Not having Matt Adams in the lineup is looked upon as a big negative for the Cardinals, but we can't help but wonder if this is addition by subtraction.
Defensively, Adams has a rating of -1.4 according to FanGraphs, which leaves him second-worst on the team to the aging Jhonny Peralta, and offensively, he just hasn't put together all that much of a contribution.
Adams strikes out 22.9 percent of the time (none of the other regulars in the St. Louis lineup strikeout even 20 percent of the time), and his ISO is just .132.
Mark Reynolds might strike out a ton as well, but at least he is a plus defensive player and can put a jolt into the baseball. In just 109 plate appearances this year, Reynolds has three home runs and 13 RBIs, and he might actually be a better fit for this team at the moment than Adams is.
TALKING BULLPENS
Kenley Jansen is healthy once again, and the Dodgers are a heck of a lot better off for it. Now, a pen which really didn't have a lot of defined roles is working like clockwork, and that could be a good situation when it comes to closing out this game.
In the last two weeks since Jansen has been back, J.P. Howell and Juan Nicasio have been unhittable, while Chris Hatcher and Yimi Garcia have become a little more comfortable in more middle relief roles.
We're still not sold that this bullpen doesn't need some more help when it comes time for the postseason, but we're just talking about one game right now for live betting purposes. Clearly, if the Dodgers get into the ninth inning with a lead, it's really tough to bet against Jansen, the only man in baseball right now with at least five innings pitched with a negative FIP. Leading into that could be a bit problematic, and we wouldn't want a piece of the Dodgers at that point, but come that ninth inning, it's all over if it gets that far.
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