The Washington Nationals ( 26-18, $323 ) are finally surging as they are atop the NL East and have begun dominating opponents. Playing the Phillies and a struggling Padres team is different than another strong team, however, and they will be tested this week against the Chicago Cubs ( 24-19, $279 ) as they meet in a three game set ending on Wednesday.
ODDS ANALYSIS
Heading into the series, the Cubs had won nine of 13 to propel themselves into the early playoff conversation. The Nationals, of course, have been in the midst of their own surge, winning 19 of their last 24 games.
Offense has been up for both teams in the month of May, particularly Washington who ranks just below San Francisco for most runs in the NL in the month with 105. The Cubs, meanwhile have scored 93 as star rookie Kris Bryant becomes a bigger and bigger threat in the heart of the order.
PITCHING MATCHUP
As the Cubs close out the series against a potential playoff opponent, they will turn to ace Jon Lester to get the job done on the mound.
Lester is 4-2 with a 3.56 ERA and 1.311 WHIP in 55 2/3 innings, but those numbers are skewed thanks to a slow start. Once he got his feet under him, Lester has been everything the Cubs had hoped.
In the month of May, Lester has made five starts, collecting four wins and pitching to a 1.85 ERA in 34 innings. He’s been a bit liberal with the home run (5) and walks (10), but has allowed just 29 hits.
For the Nationals, they’re likely to counter Lester with their own ace: Max Scherzer.
Scherzer has pitched at a Cy Young level early on with a 5-3 record, a 1.67 ERA and a 0.881 WHIP. The sabermetrics indicate he has not just been lucky with those numbers, either, as his FIP is a league leading 2.02.
More recently, the 30-year old right-hander has allowed just one run in his last 15 innings of work and two in his last 22. All in all, he has allowed two runs or fewer in eight of his first nine starts as a member of the Nats.
QUOTE TO NOTE
On Saturday, following an 8-1 loss to the Philadelphia Phillies and Cole Hamels, Matt Williams spoke about his team that looked flat, saying:
“Today was a clunker. But all and all, in the last couple of weeks, it’s been darn good. I’m not worried about the intensity level or anything of that nature. It’s just one of those games.”
The Nats proved Williams right on Sunday with a 4-1 win to close out their series with the Phillies.
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The Nationals have scored more runs this season than the Cubs, though both teams are picking it up after a slow start.
For Washington the slow start on offense was due mainly to a number of injuries and while key players like Jayson Werth and Anthony Rendon are still sidelined, others have stepped up to cover them.
Of those players to step up, none have been bigger than Bryce Harper. Harper is the early season favorite for National League MVP leading the league in runs ( 38 ), home runs ( 16 ), OPS ( 1.194 ), and total bases ( 105 ).
Denard Span has also been crucial since his return with a .350 OBP atop the order while Yunel Escobar ( .772 OPS ) and Danny Espinosa ( .819 OPS ) have filled in admirably for Rendon.
On the other side, the Cubs have one of the best collections of young talent and while the youth may prove inconsistent, Kris Bryant has been anything but of late. On Sunday, he snapped a 12 game hitting streak, but still has provided a quality at bat each time up.
On the year, Bryant is hitting .282 with a .861 OPS and five long balls. First baseman Anthony Rizzo, however, has been even better. The franchise’s leader is hitting .322 with a 1.030 OPS and nine home runs.
All in all, Chicago has four everyday starters under 30 with an OPS+ of 103 or more. Add in players like Starlin Castro ( .272 average ) and Addison Russell ( .701 OPS ) on top of veteran catcher Miguel Montero ( .825 OPS ) and you have a rather deep lineup.
PROP TALK
In most situations, when the Nationals are involved, you take Bryce Harper. It is as simple as that this season. Harper has been on fire, developing into the player everyone was expecting.
Harper, however, has never faced Lester and has been human, although still good, against southpaws with a .867 OPS and just one home run.
One player that has hit Lester well is Denard Span. He typically struggles against lefties, but is 6 for 19 against the vet with five walks and a .480 OBP.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
In what undoubtedly should be a pitchers’ duel, I have the Nationals holding the edge over the Cubs due to a slightly better offense and a bullpen that ranks a run better per game. Look for both Scherzer and Lester to go deep, but Washington has that little extra experience to get the job done when it matters most.
Washington 3, Chicago 2
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