The Washington Nationals and New York Mets are neck-and-neck in the NL East, making the three game weekend set beginning on Friday a huge series for both clubs as the Nats aim to keep hold of their narrow lead in the division, bringing their 52-46 record against the Mets’ 52-48.
ODDS ANALYSIS
While Washington is a game up in the division—and two in the loss column—the Mets have actually been the better bet this year with a total moneyline of $388 compared to the National’s -$276.
The Mets have also won three straight, snapping a three game losing streak and getting back in the hunt for the division thanks in large part to Washington dropping four of their last five games and seven of their last 10.
To make matters worse for the Nationals, they’re just 24-27 on the road while the Mets are 35-16 at home. Still, Washington has topped New York in six of their 10 head-to-head 2015 meetings.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Matt Harvey will make his fourth start of the year against the Nationals on Friday, bringing a 2-1 record with a 1.80 ERA against them to the mound.
The young phenom is having a pretty strong comeback season after missing all of 2014 with Tommy John surgery. Overall, the 26-year old right-hander is 9-7 with a 3.16 ERA and 1.093 WHIP in his 125 1/3 innings of work.
With the inning count rising, the Mets are likely to give the righty a short leash to protect him from injury. Still, they do need what they can get from him as the team is heavily reliant on its pitching to overcome its offensive shortcomings.
While workload is a concern, he’s pitched seven innings in each of his last three outings and has five quality starts in his last seven appearances. In general, he’s pitched really well aside from the occasional poor outing.
For the Nationals, Gio Gonzalez brings a similar pedigree to the mound with both having put up solid, though unspectacular seasons, with a few hiccups along the way.
The Nats’ southpaw is 8-4 this year with a 3.83 ERA in his 105 2/3 innings of work. His FIP is a low 3.17 but his WHIP is inflated at 1.420 as he has walked 3.3 per nine and has allowed 9.5 hits per nine as well, up over a hit and a half from his career norm.
One thing Gonzalez is doing really well this year is keeping the ball in the park, allowing just five HRs all season.
In his last five outings, he’s allowed no more than two runs. Against the Mets on July 20, he surrendered two runs in six innings, leading his team to the win over Matt Harvey and the Mets.
QUOTE TO NOTE
Despite the recent losses, things are starting to come together for the Nationals as they got Jayson Werth and Ryan Zimmerman back on Tuesday with them combining to go 3 for 7. The team also added Jonathan Papelbon to the bullpen and Zimmerman spoke about the addition, saying:
“He’s proven. He’s good and we’re happy to have him on our team. With him and Dew in the back end of the bullpen, it makes it easier on the starters—that’s for sure—to go six innings and hand it off to those guys. They’re gonna lock it down most of the time. It’s exciting and we just need to start playing a little better ball.”
LIVE/SITUATIONAL BETTING
The returns of Zimmerman and Werth give the Nationals the closest thing they’ve had to a healthy lineup this year. Denard Span is still on the disabled list with back spasms, but Werth, Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon lengthen a lineup that still managed to score 4.19 runs per game, but were decimated by injuries.
For much of the year, Bryce Harper was a bit of a one-man wrecking crew with his .330 average, 27 home runs and 1.130 OPS. He now has legitimate middle of the order hitters around him to go along with Danny Espinosa and Yunel Escobar, both of whom have over achieved this year.
In addition to the returning players, the Nationals also have Ian Desmond finally remembering how to swing the bat. He had a dismal first half with a .589 OPS, but in the second half he’s hitting .297 with four home runs and a .987 OPS.
Washington, of course, isn’t the only team that’s seen its offense improve with recent additions. The Mets’ have also improved, though their additions have come from outside the organization. They may still be adding more to improve their major league worst 3.53 runs per game average, but for now, they’ve added Juan Uribe and Kelly Johnson to the mix.
Neither are stars, but both are veteran players and can out hit most of the players on the current roster.
In addition to the veterans, the Mets also recently called up top prospect Michael Conforto and he’s 4 for 12 since the promotion.
With those four players sprinkled in with Lucas Duda’s .771 OPS, Curtis Granderson’s .346 OBP and Daniel Murphy’s .272 average, the team at least has a better lineup with legitimate major league bats at most positions.
PROP TALK
Typically Harper is a safe prop bet this year, but the star has yet to figure out Harvey and is 0 for 14 against him in his career with seven strike outs. Instead of Harper, look to Desmond.
The shortstop is swinging the bat much better right now and is 5 for 17 in his career against Harvey with a double, a home run and three walks for a .929 OPS.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Both teams have improved their bullpens with the Nats adding Papelbon and the Mets adding Tyler Clippard. Both teams also have a starter that’s been a bit up-and-down this year on the mound. Gonzalez has been better of late, but Harvey has owned the Nationals.
Still, the Nats won the last time these two pitchers squared off and with a mostly healthy lineup, Washington has the clear edge offensively.
Overall, I look for a close game, but unless the Mets add another big bat, they just don’t have the thump to keep up with the division leaders.
Washington 4, New York 2
The MLB odds for this game will be available first at BookMaker Sportsbook. Since this game can be seen by anyone with a TV, BookMaker will have a multitude of wagering options available for it. Outside of the normal lines, you can gamble on real-time moneylines, player props and inning totals. Live betting is open during every commercial break!
Load your betting bankroll from your smartphone with BookMaker’s new cashier feature! Depositing and withdrawing funds from your account has never been easier. BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! First pitch for the game between the Washington Nationals and New York Mets is scheduled for Friday, July 31, 2015, at 7:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. You can watch the contest live on the MLB Network.
