The White Sox and Indians had hopes of battling for supremacy in the AL Central when the season began but are instead fighting to stay out of last place after the All-Star break.
ODDS ANALYSIS
The White Sox had just one win in six games after the break but opened the four-game weekend set with an 8-1 win over the Tribe on Thursday, with the teams cashing the over for the first time. Cleveland dropped to an abysmal 19-27 at Progressive Field, putting them in the red 18.0 units on the season. The Tribe has the division’s worst home record and the White Sox are the worst on the road. Chicago won just its 19th away game of the year with Thursday’s victory and is down 6.93 units. The Sox evened the season series at 5-5 with their second win in three games at Progressive Field and the under is 9-1. The Sox have played below the scoreline with Chris Sale on the hill, with the under a 10-1-2 in his last 13 starts.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Chris Sale (8-5, 2.86 ERA) gave up four earned runs over 6.1 innings Sunday in a loss to the Royals and punched out just six, his lowest total in his last 14 starts. His incredible strikeout numbers have dropped off since he went eight straight games with double-digit strikeouts. He’s been plagued by the long ball as of late giving up multiple home runs in two of three July starts.
Sale went eight innings giving up four hits and a run with seven Ks in a no-decision against the Indians on May 18 and owns a 3.97 ERA with 84 strikeouts in 79.1 innings in his career against them.
Carlos Carrasco (10-7, 3.94 ERA) has taken a step back after a tremendous 2014 and has been mentioned in trade rumors. He had a strong outing Sunday, tossing six innings of one-run ball with six strikeouts taking a no-decision at Cincinnati. Like the Indians, Carrasco has struggled at home with a 4.79 ERA and .297 opponent’s batting average across 56.1 innings.
The first time he faced Chicago on Apr. 14, Carrasco left without recording an out after being struck by a line drive. A week later, he struck out eight in five innings allowing one earned run for the win.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“We swung the bat. It was a nice night to have offensively, especially as tough as it’s been for these guys. They’re having fun swinging the bat, putting it on the barrel, getting some over the fence is even better.” – White Sox manager Robin Ventura after his team slugged four homers in Thursday’s 8-1 win.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
According to White Sox manager Robin Ventura, Tyler Flowers remains the team’s starting catcher. But with four homers in his last 11 starts, Geovany Soto has earned more playing time behind the plate. Flowers has been matched with Chris Sale this season and Sox pitchers have a 3.71 ERA with him behind the plate. Much of that success obviously credited to what Sale has accomplished. The team has registered a 4.21 ERA when Soto is behind the dish. But for a team starved for offense we may see more of Soto, even when Sale is on the bump. Soto hits .241 compared to Flowers’ .221 and has just one fewer home run in 83 less at-bats. The two have combined to throw out just 11 of 64 would-be base stealers and have yet to make up for their offensive shortcomings.
PROP TALK
The White Sox waited more than half the season for Melky Cabrera to start hitting. It looks like he may be worth the wait. Cabrera clobbered two homers in Thursday’s series opener, one from each side of the plate for his first multi-homer game since last July. Five of his six home runs on the season have come since June 28 and his slugging percentage of .357 is at its highest point all season. He’s hit safely in 15 of 18 July games while batting .313 during the month to get his average up to .263. Cabrera has had success against Carrasco hitting .462 with a homer, a double and five RBIs in 13 lifetime at-bats.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Chris Sale has been able to silence a lot of bats this season and he did a nice job when he faced the Indians earlier this season. He hasn’t been racking up the strikeouts like he did during his record setting run, but Sale has still been dominant and the Indians don’t have the sticks to keep up. Carlos Santana is the only Cleveland player to have any success against Sale and he’s having an awful season, so the likelihood of anything happening drops significantly. The Sox are 11-7 in games started Sale and he keeps the Indians wondering in a low-scoring Chicago victory.
Chicago 3, Cleveland 1
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