A disastrous start to the second half of the season all but sealed the fate of the Boston Red Sox, who slipped to the bottom of the American League standings by losing eight of nine after the All-Star break. They face the Chicago White Sox, coming off a four-game sweep of Cleveland, for the first time this season.
ODDS ANALYSIS
It’s been a long season for the Red Sox and it’s getting longer following a stretch of eight losses in nine games after the All-Star break. Boston is battling with Oakland for last place in the AL and as the least profitable team in the majors. The Red Sox are down 7.25 units since the break and 18.75 units overall on the moneyline. They are worse on the runline, with a record of 40-58 overall and 15-32 at Fenway Park, in baseball’s version of the spread, down 24.02 units.
They’ve struggled on the road for most of the season but the White Sox are making up for their poor play. Chicago swept a four-game series at Cleveland over the weekend, getting out of the cellar in the AL Central and within five games of Minnesota for the second wild card spot. The White Sox are 8-1 in their last nine road games, up 8.94 units in that stretch.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Chicago’s John Danks (5-8, 4.66 ERA) blanked the Cardinals for 6.2 innings, striking out five, in a no-decision Wednesday. His command continues to improve after he threw his third scoreless outing in July and he’s working on a string of 12.2 scoreless frames over his last two starts, lowering his ERA from 5.30 to 4.66. We don’t expect his ERA to drop much from there, but he is justifying his presence in the rotation.
Danks is 3-2 with a 4.55 ERA over 29.2 innings in five career starts at Fenway Park. He’s issued 12 walks in those games and the Red Sox hit .306 against him.
Joe Kelly (2-6, 5.74 ERA) allowed three home runs in his last start in Houston, surrendering four runs in 5.1 innings as his ERA climbed to 5.74. His struggles are largely a result of him not being a very good pitcher. He’s also giving up a career-high 1.2 homers per nine innings and has surrendered 11 in 80 innings this year. Kelly posted a 2.84 ERA in four outings at Triple-A Pawtucket before his last turn and is likely to stay in the rotation for a few more starts.
Kelly will pitch against the White Sox for the first time in his career.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“They’ve been fantastic. You have to have that to win multiple games in a row. You want your staff to pitch well, and that’s part of it. Especially if you’re playing defense, you don’t want to walk anyone. You want to make them earn it.” – White Sox manager Robin Ventura Sunday after a fifth straight walk-free game by his starting pitcher.
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Boston’s offense, considered a strength at the beginning of the year, has fallen on hard times since the All-Star break. For the season the Red Sox rank in the middle of the pack in runs scored, batting average and OPS, but their miserable post-break start can be attributed to their lack of run support. The Red Sox scored 16 runs, an average of only 1.8 per game, and batted just .209 while dropping eight of nine games after the break. Boston placed second baseman Dustin Pedroia on the disabled list Saturday with a hamstring injury, but he hadn’t been much help, going 1 for 22 since the break. Brock Holt, who has four hits in his last 25 at-bats, figures to be the starting second baseman until mid-August.
PROP TALK
Several Red Sox players mired in post All-Star break slumps could be looking forward to facing John Danks. Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Brock Holt and Xander Bogaerts have all had success hitting off Chicago’s lefty with a combined 10 hits in 18 at-bats for a .555 average. Bogaerts and Sandoval each hit .667 while Holt is at .500 in his career. Ramirez has the lowest average against Danks at .400, but he’s hit the only homer of the group and has driven in two in five lifetime at-bats. The Red Sox need something to get out of their offensive funk and Danks may just be it.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Following their weekend sweep of the Indians the Chicago is saying ‘why not us.’ The White Sox are starting to believe they have a chance at a wild card spot, moving within five games of Minnesota for the second spot, and have several games remaining with their Central Division rivals. Looking at the cumulative offensive numbers, Boston is far superior then Chicago, however the White Sox have a pitching staff the Red Sox would die for. And pitching has kept the White Sox alive. Chicago starter John Danks has a 12.2 scoreless innings streak heading in and is the weak link on the staff. The Red Sox have beaten him up in the past and snap out of their offensive slumber to get a much-needed win.
Boston 6, Chicago 4
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