The Cubs are in the World Series for the first time in 71 years and they’ll meet the Indians in Cleveland on Tuesday for Game 1. These two fan bases are each starved for a World Series title. The series opener will be crucial to set the momentum, particularly for the Indians who’ve ridden the momentum wave this whole postseason.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Can the Cubs really do this? Can they break the curse and win the World Series? The Indians will need to cool off for that to happen. Cleveland’s been red hot and has gotten to the Fall Classic having lost just one postseason game. The Cubs have dropped three.
The long layoff is good for Cleveland in that it allowed Trevor Bauer time to heal and gave the Indians the chance to line up their pitching staff, but the time off can play tricks with hitters’ timing and team’s momentum.
Of course, Chicago will have a few days off, too, but not as many. Meanwhile, the Cubs’ offense has just started getting going again. Anthony Rizzo was having an awful postseason, but has looked locked in the last few games. Addison Russell, Kris Bryant, Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist are all swinging well, too.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Corey Kluber pitched Game 4 of the ALDS and has had plenty of rest following the Indians clinching the series a day later. With that, there’s no reason he won’t start Game 1 at home.
The Tribe’s ace had a very strong year again, going 18-9 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.056 WHIP over 215 regular season innings, securing the best ERA+ and best FIP in the American League.
In the postseason, Kluber is 2-1 and although he does have a loss, he’s only allowed two earned runs in 18.1 innings. In that span, he’s allowed only 13 hits and four walks. In fact, the only time Kluber has given up runs in the postseason is when he started on short rest, allowing two runs in five innings. Otherwise, in the other two starts, he held the opposition scoreless in 13.1 innings. More impressive, the opposition were great hitting Boston and Toronto teams.
In his career, the 30-year old right-hander has only faced the Cubs one time, holding them to a single run on four hits in 7.2 innings.
On the other side, the only starter that would appear off limits to start Game 1 would be Kyle Hendricks who tossed an absolute gem in the clinching game, Game 6, of the NLCS. Jon Lester pitched Game 5, but would start on four day’s rest. The team could also opt to start Jake Arrieta who was on tap for the Game 7 nod had the NLCS extended an extra day.
Both potential starters had great seasons. Jon Lester is a bit more proven in the postseason, but Arrieta is the reigning Cy Young Award winner and once again was virtually unhittable. He just struggled a bit with the free passes.
On the season, Lester went 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA and 1.016 WHIP while Arrieta was 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.094 WHIP. In terms of innings, they were separated by just five and a third.
Lester certainly has looked better in this postseason. He’s allowed two earned runs in 21 innings. He’s going deep into the game, averaging seven innings a start and has allowed just 14 hits while walking two.
Arrieta, on the other hand, has made just two starts. In the latest, he gave up four runs in five innings to the Dodgers in a loss. In that game, he allowed a pair of home runs. In the start against the Giants in the NLDS, however, he lasted six, giving up just a pair of runs.
Lester is clearly in the better position and likely gets the nod, in which case the Cubs get the advantage on the mound—at least to start the game—though we should be in for a well-pitched treat.
LIVE BETTING
If Lester gets the start, one thing to watch is the Indians’ on the base paths. We’ve long heard about how Lester cannot throw to first base and struggles to field his position. We were taunted prior to Game 5 of the NLCS that the Dodgers would exploit that weakness, but they never did.
We did, however, see the Kansas City Royals exploit it in the 2014 AL Wild Card game and the Indians have a roster with plenty of speed and the kind of gritty players that it takes to execute such a game plan.
Keep an eye on the speed factor and what the Indians do if and when they get on base. If they can get into Lester’s head that would be great, but it seems more likely that they’d at least be able to take a few extra bases and put themselves in better position should the big hit arrive.
Speaking of big hits, that’s not something that the opposition has gotten much of against the Indians’ bullpen.
The Cubs’ pen wasn’t exactly lock down against the Dodgers and if this game is tied late, look for the Indians to have the advantage.
Both Cleveland and Chicago got All-Star caliber closers from the Yankees at the trade deadline. For the Cubs, that was Aroldis Chapman who has looked beatable from time to time as he’s struggled locating his breaking ball and even throwing 103 miles per hour, major leaguers can beat someone without a second pitch.
For the Indians, that pitcher was Andrew Millers who—as a relief arm—was the ALCS MVP. The lefty has been used by Terry Francona in the high leverage situations in the middle innings and has given him length out the pen as well. Between him and Chad Allen, the Indians have effectively shortened the game to just six—sometimes even five—innings.
In 11.2 postseason innings, Miller has allowed five hits, two walks and no runs. He’s also struck out 21. Allen has pitched less, but his ability to lock down the ninth has allowed for Miller’s use earlier in the game. He’s pitched 7.2 scoreless innings, giving up five hits and striking out 12.
QUICK PICK
Look for a low scoring game. The Cubs’ offense has come around the last three games, but a brief layoff could play with the team’s timing once again. The Indians will have their Cy Young starter on the mound against a Cy Young candidate for the Cubbies. As for the pens, the Indians’ bullpen has been lock down. The Cubs’ has been beatable, but Lester’s gone deep all postseason long and Chapman is still Chapman.
These two lineups are deep and loaded with talent, but good pitching beats good hitting and that’s what should happen on Tuesday.
As for the ultimate winner, if Cleveland has the lead when they turn the ball to Miller and Allen, they win, but look for the Cubs to get a couple off of Kluber and secure the victory. The Cubs’ offense is just too good and have really begun to click. Chicago will also have an extra hitter and if any NL team can benefit from the DH, it’s the Cubs who have plenty of options, including Willson Contreras who could get the start with Chicago carrying three catchers and David Ross likely to start as Lester’s personal catcher.
MLB Odds: Cubs 3, Indians 2
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