Cleveland came out strong on Tuesday. They jumped on Jon Lester early and rode a strong outing by Corey Kluber—including eight strikeouts in the first three innings—to victory. Given the injuries to the Indian’s rotation, they needed the win with their ace on the mound. Chicago is now the team feeling the pressure looking to avoid going down by two.
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ODDS ANALYSIS
Cleveland showed no signs of rust in Game 1, playing a low scoring game similar to the previous eight games they’ve played this postseason. The three runs scored was actually above their average run total from the ALCS when they scored 12 runs in five games.
This season, the Cubs were 15-5 in interleague play and have a nice little edge that most NL teams don’t in an AL ballpark: Kyle Schwarber. After missing the entire season, he came back to have a double and walk.
The Indians also faired very well in interleague play going 13-7. Cleveland also has won 61 straight games when up by at least three, adding to that total on Tuesday.
Despite that streak, Cleveland was in trouble in the seventh inning on Tuesday. Kluber allowed a lead-off hit and that was all she wrote for him as Terry Francona had a quick hook, going to his relief ace: Andrew Miller. Miller proceeded to load the bases with no outs before escaping unscathed. He gave up two more base runners in the eighth.
It may seem insignificant since no runs scored, but Chicago got to Miller. They also made him pitch. If nothing else, it could hinder his availability in Game 2.
The forecast for Cleveland on Wednesday could also impact this game quite heavily. There’s supposed to be plenty of rain, getting heavier as the night goes on. As a result, the game has been pushed up an hour to try and avoid a rain out. With the uncertainty, early runs become even more important.
PROBABLE PITCHERS
Kyle Hendricks dominated the Dodgers in Game 6 of the NLCS, pushing back his availability in this series. As a result, the Cubs are going with Jake Arrieta in Game 2.
Arrieta is not a bad fall back plan. The 30-year old right-hander was an 18 game winner in the regular season, following up a Cy Young performance. He allowed the fewest hits per nine innings for the second straight year.
Despite remaining difficult to hit, his ERA jumped from 1.77 to 3.10. Much of that is a result of control. He walked 3.5 batters per nine and led the NL in wild pitches with 16.
Here in the postseason, Arrieta has made two starts. In Game 3 of the NLDS against the Giants he gave up two runs in six innings. He wasn’t as good against the Dodgers in the NLCS, allowing four runs in five innings.
Over his career, he’s now made five postseason starts. He has one dominant outing, one good outing and three disappointing ones.
For the home town Indians it’ll be Trevor Bauer getting the call. The long break between the ALCS and World Series was helpful in getting him healthy.
The righty cut his hand prior to the Championship Series and didn’t make it out of the first in his ALCS start as a result. Cleveland is hoping his hand has healed enough to allow him to pitch unhindered on Wednesday.
Even if fully healthy, Bauer is a sizeable downgrade from Kluber, but the Indians are just hoping for him to go through the Cubs’ order twice. Starting in the sixth inning, Bauer’s ERA jumps to 7.25. Look for him to be a five-and-dive starter regardless of Miller’s availability.
The 25-year old righty was 12-8 with a 4.26 ERA in 190 regular season innings. He wasn’t as reliable as Arrieta and even started the year in the pen. He’s the Game 2 starter more out of necessity than qualification with Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar injured. Salazar is on the roster and available in the pen if Bauer’s hand opens back up.
LIVE BETTING
The Indians, of course, still have the advantage in the bullpen with Cody Allen, Bryan Shaw and company, but it’s a lot closer after Miller tossed a season high 46-pitches in his two inning outing.
The Cubs saw Aroldis Chapman stumble some in the NLCS. Hector Rondon struggled in September and those struggles have continued into October.
At the plate, both teams have deep lineups. The Cubs’ offense came alive in the last three games of the NLCS. The Indians’ have been relatively silent in the postseason, but they were the ones that scored six runs on Tuesday while the Cubs were shutout.
The blend of speed and power gives Cleveland versatility and variety which has helped them manufacture just enough runs. Traditionally, the Indians don’t score a ton, but they’re opportunistic with their runs. That was the case in the first inning on Tuesday and that’s been the case all postseason. In fact, they scored after the sixth inning for the first time with Roberto Perez’s three run shot in the eighth, his second homer of the game.
QUICK PICK
We’re just one game in, but there’s already a level of doom and gloom in Chicago, much as there was after the Cubs fell behind the Dodgers following a Game 3 loss last series.
Chicago bounced back in the NLCS and will so again in the World Series. The Game 1 matchup was a tough one, but the Cubs have the clear advantage on the mound to start Game 2.
With uncertainty around what the Indians can expect from Bauer who’s pitched just two-thirds of an innings since his Game 2 start in the ALDS, the Cubs’ bats are in position to jump out to an early lead and command the game in much the same manner the Indians did in Game 1.
Kluber and the Indians’ bullpen silenced the Cubs’ offense, but the bats were clicking heading into the series and can get going again in short order with an easier opponent.
Take the Cubs to get the early lead, minimizing the impact of the Cleveland bullpen and leading to Chicago being able to even up the series at a game apiece.
MLB Odds: Cubs 5, Indians 3
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