
ODDS ANALYSIS
The Yankees lost for the fourth time in five games with Thursday’s 4-0 shutout defeat. Two losses in that stretch were at home to the lowly Philadelphia Phillies where the Yankees gave up 11 runs in each game.
The Yanks averaged 8.3 runs in a seven-game home stretch prior to Thursday cashing the over in all seven and the over is 8-2 in the Yankees last 10 games. The Yankees have also cashed the over in all six road starts made by Michael Pineda.
The Astros were happy to return home after splitting an eight-game road trip. Houston won its fourth straight game and fifth in the last six at Minute Maid Park with Thursday’s 4-0 decision to climb 10 games over .500 at home, where they are in the black 6.17 units overall. Houston has scored 21 runs in Collin McHugh’s last two starts, winning both, and the over is 6-0 in his last six starts and 10-2-1 in his last 13.
PITCHING MATCHUP
Michael Pineda (8-4, 4.25 ERA) looks to rebound from a rough outing in his last start when he tossed a season low 3.1 innings while giving up season-highs in hits (11) and earned runs (8) in a loss to the Phillies. He’s been prone to the blowup start but they have come more frequently, which is concerning to the Yankees.
Pineda was charged with two runs on four hits with three strikeouts over six innings getting a no-decision in his only start against the Astros on Aug. 20, 2014 in Yankee Stadium.
Collin McHugh (8-3, 4.80 ERA) pitched eight innings of two-run ball to beat the Angels on Tuesday. He struck out six and walked one with nine hits in a season-long outing. He’s 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in his last 2 starts and 15-2 with a 3.55 ERA in his last 25 starts dating back to last season. He’s allowed two or fewer walks in 14 of 15 starts this season.
McHugh will make his first career appearance against the Yankees.
QUOTE TO NOTE
“George [Springer] provides a lot of energy. Carlos [Correa] has created a buzz here. We got production out of the bottom of the order as well. We have a complete lineup, but it feels incomplete when Jose’s not in there, and we felt that a few weeks ago. And tonight we felt the positive side of that energy.” – Astros manager A.J. Hinch on Jose Altuve
LIVE BETTING or SITUATIONAL BETTING
Jose Altuve looked the part of an offensive catalyst Thursday for the first time in a while. After missing four straight games with a sore hamstring, the Astros second baseman started all three games against the Angels earlier in the week, but went just 3 for 13. His performance Thursday against the Yankees was all the Astros expect from their sparkplug. He smacked two doubles, stole a pair of bases and scored three times in Houston’s 4-0 victory. Altuve initially sustained the injury June 12 and struggled for a few games before being forced to the bench. He lacked the burst we’re accustomed to seeing on the basepaths but his speed was clearly evident Thursday. Suddenly the Astros are whole again.
PROP TALK
Houston hitters lead the majors in strikeouts and Yankees starter Michael Pineda is a strikeout pitcher. You know how this goes. As a team the Astros have fanned 697 times after going down six times against soft-tossers Adam Warren and Chris Capuano Thursday. They’ll take their whacks against Michael Pineda, who leads the Yankees staff with 87 Ks and averages 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Pineda whiffed a career-high 16 in seven innings against Baltimore on May 10 for his only double-figure strikeout game of the season, but he has at least six Ks in eight of his 14 starts while averaging six innings a start. Taking the over on his strikeout total looks like a smart play.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
The Astros keep adding youthful talent to their roster and they’re not supposed to be this good. They’re young enough to not know and cocky enough to not care. Houston may falter in the second half and miss the playoffs – there is still plenty of baseball to be played – but what the Astros have accomplished so far is exciting even for the fringe fan. The Yankees look old and tired in comparison and it’s just odd to have position players in a regular season game with a uniform number in the 60s. The Yankees are still a contender in the AL East, even though it is a weak division, and Michael Pineda will have his way with the Astros lineup.
New York 7, Houston 4
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